The US is definitely applying diplomatic pressure on the ROC to pass this large arms procurement bill, but I don’t think “force” would be an accurate word. For one, I haven’t seen the US issue a single “threat” if Taiwan doesn’t pass this bill.

Despite what you saw in front of the AIT, sentiment against this bill is not very strong at all amongst the general population. I’ve been flipping through the news channels for the past 30 minutes and I haven’t seen any coverage of this incident. Indeed, there seemed to be a larger furor about a year ago over the minute possibility of mad-cow infected beef from the US coming to Taiwan.

The blues are pulling out a lot of stops to try to stop this arms procurement bill, but my gut feeling is that it has nothing to do with public opposition to the bill. Some of the more deep-green commentators out there would argue it’s because the pan-blue legislators are eager for their Beijing masters to come to Taiwan. My personal opinion is that the pan-blues’s strategy is to make the greens look bad to the US (as the bill continues to not be passed, the US is dissatisfied with the Chen administration rather than the pan-blue monkeys in LY.)

October 27, 2006 @ 1:29 pm | Comment

Thanks for the interesting perspective, Wayne. I spoke with some of my staff after my little adventure downstairs, and they told me this is a recurring issuehere, and that the Taiwanese have been fed the story for some years that the US forces them to buy obsolete weapons.

I completely agree that the handful of angry demonstrators I saw today does not represent the Taiwanese population at large.

October 27, 2006 @ 1:35 pm | Comment

Oops, the story just came on.

Most of the protestors are banana farmers. Because of some sort of mis-coordination earlier this year, the farmers planted way too many bananas this year, which really depressed the price this year. A lot of them were chanting, “Don’t buy weapons, buy bananas.”

Moreover, a lot of their signs had the “Oppose Corruption” slogan which was featured prominently in the recent anti-Chen protests.

So I don’t think these protestors were motivated by a deeply felt grievance against the US, but rather were some disenchanted banana farmers rounded up by some pan-blue legislator to cause a small ruckus.

October 27, 2006 @ 1:41 pm | Comment

Ah, banana farmers! That explains why so many of them seemed out of place. For the very first time, at today’s demonstration, I finally got to see a Taiwanese man spit out his disgusting bright-scarlet sputum on the sidewalk – one of the delightful side effects of chewing betel nuts, a national pastime in the south.

Whether it was about bananas or Americans, they still weren’t very loving toward me.

October 27, 2006 @ 1:50 pm | Comment

I tried picking up Taiwanese while I was there, it’s a tough language. All I can say is “the economy sucks” (everybody will bust out laughing when a foreigner can say that).

October 27, 2006 @ 1:54 pm | Comment

I can’t offer too many well thought out insights right now, mostly emotion. Before I begin my little rant, I want to point out that I’ve never even been to Taiwan and have no idea how deep anti-Americanism runs there (I’d appreciate any insights offered), I’m much more familiar with South Korean anti-Americanism which I mention below. So begineth the rant:

I know very well that America has a history in east Asia, military commitments, economic ties, yadda yadda yadda. But as an American, honestly, the more I read about stuff like this protest Richard saw, and the more I think “Screw ’em all, bunch of ingrates!”

If the people (in Taiwan and South Korea) hate us that much, screw ’em. Pull out from South Korea militarily, don’t sell Taiwan a single bullet they don’t beg us for (incidentally, many, perhaps even most countries in the world would be overjoyed to be sold “obsolete” American F-16s and attack submarines). If they think they’re up to dancing alone with the beasts in Pyongyang and Beijing, let ’em, democracy and self-determination rules. There’s no more Soviet Union so it’s no skin off our (America’s) collective nose. They’re so sure they can do it without the US? Let them enjoy the benefits and suffer the consequences without us. They have that right.

Now, long term, I know that’s not going to happen. And when I calm down and think about it rationally, I know it would be bad for everyone if the US approached East Asia that way. But the complete failure of Taiwanese and South Koreans to understand that it is American blood and treasure (indirectly and directly) that has ensured their freedoms, protected their homes, and that it was access to American markets that built their economies and provided them with the high standard of living they enjoy today, is as mindboggling as it is pathological.

Were all these good deeds done out of charity and the goodness of America’s heart? Shockingly (to almost all non-Americans and even some Americans) Yes. Actually, some of it was. But few outside America seem to be able to comprehend that fact. Of course the US acts in it’s own self interest, sometimes stupidly and even brutally but it is one of the most fundemental misunderstandings of America to assume that the US motivated solely by Machiavellian self interest and that notions of charity, doing right and helping others don’t fit into our national psyche and filter into our foreign policy. We didn’t spawn Machiavelli or invent Realpolitik (though we occassionaly emulate them), we are the guys who put human rights on the agenda worldwide.

Does the US deserve a big fat “Thank You” from Taiwan and South Korea? It’s debatable (though it’s pretty obvious which side of that debate I’m on). Does the US deserve the ire of so many Taiwanese and South Koreans? Absolutely not.

Ok, I’m ready to recieve my fair share of airborne rotten eggs, tomatoes and banana cream pies now. And anyone who can think about this more rationally and analytically than I can and enlighten me a bit will be appreciated.

So endith the rant.

October 27, 2006 @ 1:55 pm | Comment

Someday, I want to join a protest in china, and shout with a microphone “four legs good, two legs bad!!!!”

October 27, 2006 @ 1:57 pm | Comment

The posts about the banana farmers went up while I was boiling my little rant.

So, am I gonna have to change the theme of my last post to “screw the banana farmers, let ’em deal with Beijing alone.” It lacks some of the urgency of my previous indignation.

October 27, 2006 @ 2:01 pm | Comment

Iron Buddha, you mention that America has assisted and helped many countries out of the goodness of its heart(s). I’ve believed this for a long time, and I’m glad to see somebody acknowledge it. I think the American government has pretty much only acted in its own interests, but that can only be done because the public in general actually agrees with and encourages it to be a force for good. There’s a reason why America puts out more NGO’s, more food aid, and more military assistance than any other country in the world, and it’s negligent to say that the only reason is because of self interest.

October 27, 2006 @ 2:03 pm | Comment

One thing that bothers me is that I often hear complaints that the US is selling second-rate weapons phrased more as anger that the US is not selling the best weapons in its arsenal (such as Aegis cruisers).

Few Taiwanese who complain to me this way grasp the fact that the point of selling weapons to Taiwan is not to make Taiwan a military power but to provide the tools for defense in the case of an invasion. The weapons they are sold are far better than anything in their current arsenal. They are also far better than the weapons most militaries are using. The fact that they are not the newest inventions is beside the point.

I do agree that the prices of the US-made weapons are higher than they should be. However, another detail that the Taiwanese who argue about this to me never seem to grasp is that there is not a long line of countires willing to sell weapons to Taiwan, and that selling weapons to Taiwan does come at a diplomatic cost to the US in regards to the PRC. So is it any surprise that the weapons would be a bit more expensive?

My response to Taiwanese who do not understand these points is always the same: Nobody is forcing Taiwan to buy the weapons, and the pan blues are doing a good job of ensuring Taiwan’s military does not get certain needed, yet expensive military upgrades. So what is the problem? Don’t buy the weapons, and be unable to defend yourself in a few years. The PRC will be perfectly happy with you, and you will save the US from making a diplomatically costly sale.

October 27, 2006 @ 2:09 pm | Comment

Buddah, the fact remains, based on my conversation with colleagues, that there is genuine and ongoing anger at America over this weapons issue (whether the issue is exaggerated or falsely perceived is another discussion). So your indignation may be appropriate after all. Certainly some see us as vicious blackmailers – buy our weapons or we won’t defend you.

October 27, 2006 @ 2:15 pm | Comment

I have a semi-pro-independence Taiwanese friend, and his stance is that Taiwan doesn’t need the missiles, since they’re already independent, and China doesn’t have the balls to attack anyways. Thus, Taiwan could use the huge amount of cash tied up in the missiles and actually improve the economy there.

Also, Buddha, you asked about how the Taiwanese see America. Well, I was there from 2002-2004, and in general they’re pretty positive, and when they’re negative it’s usually about the government, not about the people. I almost never dealt with any anti-americanism (when I did, it was always just some old KMT guy) on a personal level. I even knew a couple of people who told me they want to be the 51st state!

October 27, 2006 @ 3:00 pm | Comment

@Richard: How did that yelling guy know you were American? I don’t know you very well, but you don’t seem the sort to go to work wrapped in the flag. He only thought so cuz you were white. Next time yell back “I’m not American, I’m from Arizona!”

October 27, 2006 @ 3:20 pm | Comment

Dave, according to some Chinese, it’s not clear whether Richard is white. I’ve heard some of them ask me how to tell the difference “between Jews and White People.”

(Long groan…..”rising power” my ass….)

Anyway, I’m no great fan of America’s policies toward Taiwan, but on the other hand I have to wonder how deep the dirty hands of China’s spies go in stirring up anti-American agitiation like this.

October 27, 2006 @ 3:56 pm | Comment

I believe there’s a general feel that, regarding the arm purchases, US sold Taiwan stuff that even on paper doesn’t exactly fit the defense need, and at a price that is outrageous rip-off. How much of a rip-off I do not know the exact detail, but for example, I think diesel submarines that Taiwan was going to buy a couple years ago was so expensive that for the price you can purchase a nuclear submarine.

Taiwan was stuffed with some decommissioned Destroyers that was for Shah of Iran(!!! ancient history!!!) and reportedly the computers on the ship was so old that it is not even serviceable(imagine 1970s type computers, stuff that rightfully belongs in a museum). Of course, the ship was priced as if the items were state-of-the-art.

Of course seen from this perspective you can’t help but feel like we Taiwanese are being suckered into buying junk. US knows Taiwan has no place to go and readily takes advantage of the situation. US sells outdated weapons so they go obsolete faster, thus Taiwan has to keep on buying and buying. Doesn’t make sense to sell Taiwan a Aegis destroyer that’s gonna last a good 25 years right?

Besides inferior weapons, some of the treatments Taiwan receive are outright condescending. For just entering negotiation to purchase weapons, there’s hundreds of million dollar of fees. The missiles “sold” to Taiwan are put in storage in US pending war with China. (which begs the question ? why can’t we buy missile pending war with China?)

For comparison, see Israel.

Basically, US is telling us Taiwanese, “Hey if there is a war we may or may not be too committed, therefore I have these wonderful weapons you should buy. Never mind the cracks and the chipped paint, they are right for you. BTW i just took 25 second to say this to you and you are going to be charged for this too.” With history like this, what is wrong with being more critical about these arm purchases?

For the same money, why not spend money on indigenous offensive deterrent missile capability? Why not develop nuclear weapons? Because that would not be in US interest.

Also, this is not about some rather abstract notion about “security”, “taiwanese dependence” or “China threat”, this is about the hard-earned cash spending on stuff that really needs to be thoroughly evaluated. It is simply common sense, business is business. It is important to remember US is trying to sell stuff here. Do you blindly believe everything a salesman tells you? If Taiwan are going to be ripped off, at least make a really tough bargain.

October 27, 2006 @ 5:04 pm | Comment

iron buddha essentially said what i wanted to say. i read something recently saying more than 50% of south koreans thought that the north detonated a nuclear bomb because of the US. my immediate response was, ok, if u have that big of a problem, we could pull out of s korea and see how u like sharing a penninsula with kim jong-il all by yourself. but then my bitter vindictive side faded, and i opted to change my stance.

October 27, 2006 @ 5:28 pm | Comment

As for Anti-Americanism in Taiwan, let’s not forget Nixon going to China corresponded with the start of Taiwan’s present day diplomatic predicament. I think a lot of people rightfully resented US after being dumped, when Taiwan not longer served US interest. Today, Taiwan is merely an “inconvenience” in US’ China policy and Taiwanese knows that.

In Taiwan, the view is one that is between Taiwan/US/China it is a “Three Kingdom” type situation. US is not an enemy but is not one to be trusted either. There exist a balance that needs to be maintained for peace to exist. However, if that’s not possible, the conventional wisdom has been to lean towards the US, buy weapons and prepare for the inevitable apocalyptic war.

But in recent years, US commitment to Taiwan is lukewarm at best and downright manipulative at worst. China’s determination to invade, on the other hand, is clear, in the case Taiwan goes independent.

If Taiwan can not count on US, pan-blue is showing the Taiwanese with an alternative. Basically, accommodate China politically, maintain autonomy, remove barriers to contact and fully integrate Taiwan economy with China. In this way peace is guaranteed and we can play the Chinese-sentimentality card to extract concessions that would be advantageous to Taiwan. The best of all, we get to save billions from arm purchases as well as those retarded dysfunctional countries that no Taiwanese cares about.

October 27, 2006 @ 5:52 pm | Comment

This incident sounds rather peculiar to me. I can’t help but wonder who’s behind all these. For a start, I always think that military procurement is the responsibility of a nation’s Ministry of Defence. So if the Taiwanese people are not happy with what they have in the arsenal, they should have taken the case up with their own government. That was exactly what happened in Australia with some of our defence contracts a few years back. A senate inquiry was set up to handle the compliant. So why would Taiwanese need to take something like that onto the street? Why do they have to turn the whole thing into an anti-US exercise? Does it mean that there is a lack of procedure within the Taiwanese government to handle complaints of this nature? (which I think is rather unlikely) Or is it just some publicity stunts?

It’s even more bizarre when it’s finally revealed that the demonstrators were in fact banana farmers with a grievance. In other words, they are just hired actors and actresses. If this is really a publicity stunt that the pan-blue faction has orchestrated, then they are more stupid than I expect.

A word of advice for the angry banana farmers: don’t get angry, get even. We have a really bad banana yield this year in Australia. As a result, the prices of bananas have gone up so much that they become a luxury. Instead of wasting time on someone else’s political games, why don’t you try to figure out how to export some of your produce down under. We are suffering badly from a banana withdraw symptom.

October 27, 2006 @ 6:08 pm | Comment

Brings back tearful memories of lines of riot police clad in gray Darth Vader-like uniforms clashing with demonstrators of all sorts in Seoul, Korea. Of the numerous times I happened upon a demonstration, I was never bothered or harassed by a demonstrator or a riot policeman. I was threatened twice by middle-aged male bystanders.

On one of the occasions, I was snapping photographs. Koreans are very sensitive about foreigners seeing or taking pictures of things that “make Korea look bad.”

October 27, 2006 @ 6:36 pm | Comment

Dave, about how he knew I was American — I’ll guess it’s because there I was, the only white guy, in front of the American Institute of Taiwan snapping pictures. But I, too, wondered at his assumption, and it truly bothered me. I shouted back at him, “I’m not your enemy,” but I don’t think he understood; I don’t even think he was listening, he was so livid.

Great comments. After a long talk with my Chinese teacher, I can now definitely conclude the US weapons is a hot-button issue here that arouses extreme sentiments against the US government. She was telling me they (or rather we, America) force taiwan to buy over-sized and impractical old jeeps in what can only be described qas blackmail. She said it’s a much-discused topic among the locals here and the outrage is not at all surprising.

When I first saw the police in riot gear, I too thought instantly of Seoul.

October 27, 2006 @ 7:03 pm | Comment

I guess that would have been absolutely the wrong time for you to start singing the old song by Alvin and the Chimpmunks: “Can We Have A Japanese Banana?”

October 27, 2006 @ 7:34 pm | Comment

“If Taiwan can not count on US, pan-blue is showing the Taiwanese with an alternative. Basically, accommodate China politically, maintain autonomy, remove barriers to contact and fully integrate Taiwan economy with China. In this way peace is guaranteed and we can play the Chinese-sentimentality card to extract concessions that would be advantageous to Taiwan.”

Unfortunately, this rests on the assumption that everyone should accept that Taiwan is destined to be a part of the PRC, and that the pan blues naturally know what is best for Taiwan. Their third way must be the ONLY way.

October 27, 2006 @ 10:38 pm | Comment

How did they know Richard was American? Well, to most Taiwanese every white person is American. Sometimes they ask to make shure (‘Ni shi Meiguoren?’), often enough they think they already know (‘Meiguoren dou hen xihuan zheige cai.’) I’m white but not American, and at times this assumption really pissed me of.

October 27, 2006 @ 11:27 pm | Comment

Excellent point, Lu. You’re right, everyone assumes I’m an American, though I’d never really thought about it before.

October 27, 2006 @ 11:30 pm | Comment

Out of date weapons! What a crock of shit! It’s Blue agitprop that I hear repeated all the time! PISSES ME OFF!

1. Taiwan is being asked to buy 8 conventional subs. The prices are inflated, but that aside, the subs do not exist. They have not even been designed. Once designed, constructed, and delivered, they will be literally the newest conventional subs in the world, as extant subs under construction are based on extant designs.

2. Taiwan is being asked to purchase 12 P-3C Orion antisub aircraft. They do not exist and are not in production. The aircraft is 1960s vintage design but it does the job of hunting subs superbly well, and when built — probably in Japan — they will be the newest P-3C Orions in the world.

3. Taiwan is being asked to buy 36 batteries of Patriot missiles. Up to date weaponry. Nuff’ said.

PISSES ME OFF!

Michael

October 28, 2006 @ 12:11 am | Comment

BTW, Taiwan has already been sold state of the art Paladin artillery systems and command and control stuff. This is jjust another one of those faux protests we’ve become familiar with. Wish I had been there.

Michael

October 28, 2006 @ 12:15 am | Comment

aiwan was stuffed with some decommissioned Destroyers that was for Shah of Iran(!!! ancient history!!!) and reportedly the computers on the ship was so old that it is not even serviceable(imagine 1970s type computers, stuff that rightfully belongs in a museum). Of course, the ship was priced as if the items were state-of-the-art.

Falen, the four Kidds were sold for $811 million, final asking price. That’s less than the price of 1 sub under the current proposal. To put that in perspective, the upgrade for the sale cost $87 million, and the Kidds were offered to Greece prior to the upgrade for $742 million. Taiwan didn’t overpay for those. They are multimission against surface, air, and undersea threats, and are the largest DDs in the world. See the global security page:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/ship/ddg-993.htm

And remember, whatever you hear from a Taiwanese about US weapons is almost certainly wrong.

Michael

October 28, 2006 @ 1:03 am | Comment

As someone who understands military issues and this particular matter, let me fill you in, Richard.

Because of China’s hostility towards Taiwan, it has put pressure on most countries not to sell arms to it. Only the US will. So there’s less choice.

Now the thing about only selling “old weapons” is utter nonsense. The Kidd-destroyers (the ones that were going to go Iran) that have just been entered into service with the ROCN were built a long time ago, BUT they received a full service to bring them back out of retirement. This included new weapon control systems, radar, sonar and upgraded weapons:

Harpoon Block-2 (standard anti-ship missiles in service with the USN, Royal Navy and others)
Standard Missile 2 Block III-A (standard missiles in service with the USN and JMSDF to shoot down incoming enemy missiles)
Mark-46 torpedoes (standard torpedoes in service with the USN, JMSDF and other navies)

So what Taiwan got was a bargain in many respects – 4 destroyers with modern systems able to carry out air-defence and surface & submarine warfare. Besides they were years ahead of their day even when they were made – they’re certainly the equal of anything the PLAN has.

As to the arms bill itself, the systems are completely new. It consists of:

12 P-3C Orion anti-submarine aircraft
PAC-3 (Patriot) anti-missile batteries
8 New Diesel submarines capable of launching UGM-84 Harpoon Block-2 missiles

The first two are in service with countries like the US, Japan, Israel, etc. There simply isn’t anything newer. The third part is the tricky one, because as the US doesn’t make them anymore it’s having to draw up some modernised plans itself. So they will be more expensive than if they were bought from Germany – maybe $500 million each, instead of $250 million. But that’s the price Taiwan has to pay for having its cake (not declaring independence) and eating it (controlling their own affairs).

The last thing that has been proposed recently is the sale of 66 Block-52 (C/D) F-16s. These are not ancient fighters, they would be better than anything else in the ROCAF (they’re upgraded versions of the F-16s currently in use). Taiwan simply can’t afford to run/buy other US jets at the moment, such as the F-15.

So why are people protesting? Because they’re either die-hard unificationists, who want to sabotage Taiwan’s military so that it will be easier for China to pressure change, or they’re naive idiots who think they’re getting an exceptionally raw deal just because they’ve been told that’s the case. Some are also probably pacifists, who incorrectly believe that there would be no threat from China if the island disarmed tomorrow.

I hope that is enough detail for you all. 🙂

October 28, 2006 @ 1:46 am | Comment

Oh, and these were all weapons the KMT wanted to buy before the 2000 elections. But now they’re in Opposition, they’d prefer to push the government around than let the DPP “win”.

Doubltess if Ma won in 2008, the first thing he’d do is rush the purchase bill through the legislative before the right-to-buy expired.

October 28, 2006 @ 1:50 am | Comment

Great information, thanks Raj. And you seem to be verifying what Michael is saying. The demonstrations are pure BS.

October 28, 2006 @ 1:52 am | Comment

The recent protest was triggered by report that the AIT head pressured, coerced and sort of threatened Taiwan into buying these junks.
(though the how hard the pressure was was not confirmed, he did said something to the Taiwanese)

The total cost of the 3 pieces are NT$610BN.
The subs cost $1bn each at least.
The $16bn question is that, why would Taiwan need so many subs?
James Fallon, the PACOM commanders, said it was cheaper and more cost effective to deplopy sea mines than subs.

October 28, 2006 @ 2:01 am | Comment

p.s. sub cost was at least US$1bn, i.e. NT$32bn

October 28, 2006 @ 2:03 am | Comment

Ask a real Taiwanese, not Chinese on Taiwan, and the answer is likely that they are for a strong defense in Taiwan and they would purchase the weapons required.

Taiwanese are grateful to the US support. They would be very happy if US would drop its one-China policy and take up “One Taiwan, One China” policy.

Rember that the anti-American protest in 1970’s after the recognition of China by Nixon and Carter was orchestrated by KMT government.

October 28, 2006 @ 2:42 am | Comment

“Taiwan”

Mines are useless because the PLA’s backup plan is to blockade Taiwan. It’s the PLAN that would be using mines, not the ROCN.

“So many subs”?! You have to be kidding, right? Do you know how many submarines the PLAN has? I’m not even going to tell you, because it’s widely accessible information. Although quite a few are obsolete, the numbers are overwhelmingly in China’s favour at the moment. 8 new submarines from the US would allow Taiwan to hold its own, because the PLAN couldn’t redirect all its submarines to focus on Taiwan. They would also be a threat to Chinese shipping.

October 28, 2006 @ 3:02 am | Comment

How convenient! If i don’t agree if arm purchase bill I am automatically a “Chinese in Taiwan”. If I support the arm purchase bill I am a Taiwanese?

Of course under that definition ALL Taiwanese loves American ALL the time?

You should jerk off your brain less.

Whether they are a bargain is a matter of perspective. Of course from American you feel they are the best there is and in fact doing Taiwanese a favor.

Anyways, here’s a story regarding the issue:
http://rawstory.com/news/2006/US_arms_deal_remarks_enrage_opposit_10272006.html

October 28, 2006 @ 4:27 am | Comment

Michael,

Why are the ships decommissioned in the first place? Because they are not good for whatever reason right?

If they are such good weapons why didn’t Greece take it? Because Greece is not a sucker for junk like Taiwan is.

The upgrades are like basically a paint job to cover up the cracks on a used car. They won’t stand a chance against China’s multi-facet anti-ship systems.

If you are telling me to not believe my imaginary Taiwan friend(Michael,

Why are the ships decommissioned in the first place? Because they are not good for whatever reason right?

If they are such good weapons why didn’t Greece take it? Because Greece is not a sucker for junk like Taiwan is.

The upgrades are like basically a paint job to cover up the cracks on a used car. They won’t stand a chance against China’s multi-facet anti-ship systems.

If you are telling me to not believe my imaginary Taiwan friend(<--- i don't believe i insinuated i got anything from my "friend", I AM a Taiwanese thank you very much), why should I believe you instead when you are taking a US perspective and trying to offload some junks for some cash?

October 28, 2006 @ 4:43 am | Comment

BTW is there no way to separate each comment with a font change or a line in between? Just a suggestion

October 28, 2006 @ 4:48 am | Comment

Falen

The fact you’re regurgitating this drivel shows you know little or nothing about this. As I said before, the destroyers received great upgrades way ahead of what they had back when they were built. Do you know what the different between Harpoon Block 1 & 2 is? Or the SM-1 and SM-2-IIIA? Maybe you could tell us why the SQS-53D is such a bad choice…….

And the idea that the PLAN is way ahead of this technology is laughable. Many of their ships don’t even have credible AAW systems! And their ASW capability is poor – the Kidds’ abilities on the other hand are much better.

Why did the Americans retire them? Geez, I don’t know – maybe because they’ve got the money to spend on building very, very expensive new ships Taiwan couldn’t possibly afford to buy, rather than just upgrade. The Burke-class cost about $1 billion EACH. So Taiwan could spend less than that on FOUR, flexible ships, or several times that on a couple of dedicated AAW platforms, when it had no experience of operating such complicated vessels. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

October 28, 2006 @ 7:02 am | Comment

If they are such good weapons why didn’t Greece take it? Because Greece is not a sucker for junk like Taiwan is.

The Greeks got a deal from the Dutch to buy another of a frigate class they already had several of. Believe it or not, sometimes the US makes good-faith offers that are useful. This is one. The Kidds were a bargain at the price.

I don’t agree that Taiwan needs subs at that price — I’d prefer more fighters — but I am compelled to admit that all professional military experts agree that they will be extremely useful against the PRC, which, as raj notes, has only the most primitive anti-sub weaponry.

Michael

October 28, 2006 @ 9:21 am | Comment

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/detail.asp?ID=93762&GRP=A

See the “rawstory” link above. the protest was trigger by an alleged ultimatum delivered by Stephen Young of AIT.

re:raj
Please spend a little time reading before reflexively disagreeing. You don’t match weapon by weapon. It is not a competition by number of the same type.
With your reasoning, Taiwan should elist 2M soldiers to match the PLA in number.

October 28, 2006 @ 11:03 am | Comment

taiwan, I didn’t get the impression raj was counting weapon for weapon, he was examining the weapons Taiwan has and would use vs. what mainland China would use against it. He’s not just counting bean for bean here though I’m sure raj will make that abudantly clear soon enough.

And Phalen, if you don’t like the prices or weapons, you’re free to buy elsewhere, if you can find anyone to sell you weapons that is. The idea that Taiwan is being “forced” to buy US weapons has been exposed as a fantasy, I suggest you move on.

I think all this anti-American weirdness in Taiwan (and South Korea) comes back to one thing: loss of face. Both the Chinese on Taiwan and the South Koreans lost their wars and would have gone extinct as independent countries (fine, “entity” in Taiwan’s case) because they weren’t strong enough to defend themselves. The US rode in like cavalry and SAVED THEIR ASSES! And they (SK and Taiwan) will never forgive America for saving them.

October 28, 2006 @ 2:35 pm | Comment

“Taiwan”

Erm, did I say that Taipei had to buy the same numb er of submarines Beijing had? No. So why are you implying I ever said Taiwan had to match China on anything in regards to numbers? I guess you STILL haven’t bothered to find out how many are in the PLAN. I’ll give you a clue – it’s a LOT more than 8!

8 is pretty much what can be afforded and would just about do.

October 28, 2006 @ 7:22 pm | Comment

Is “Taiwan” the same person as “Falen”. Please confirm.

October 28, 2006 @ 7:56 pm | Comment

I think all this anti-American weirdness in Taiwan (and South Korea) comes back to one thing: loss of face. Both the Chinese on Taiwan and the South Koreans lost their wars and would have gone extinct as independent countries (fine, “entity” in Taiwan’s case) because they weren’t strong enough to defend themselves. The US rode in like cavalry and SAVED THEIR ASSES! And they (SK and Taiwan) will never forgive America for saving them.

Iron Buddha, I don’t agree. The anti-Americans here are a minority. The Taiwanese know who butters their bread. In S Korea anti-Americanism predates the Korean War, to the People’s Committees and primitive soviets that controlled the South after WWII, and who were destroyed by a US-led anti-guerilla war with the usual atrocities and mass killings. Prior to 1950, the Koreans already wanted us out.

Michael

October 28, 2006 @ 8:47 pm | Comment

No, Fat Cat, they have completely different IPs.

October 29, 2006 @ 12:30 am | Comment

Shameless plug for a good friend of mine, Michael Glosny at MIT, who is my go-to guy on things strategically Taiwan. He spends a lot of time counting submarines and that sort of thing. He published a fabulous article (not online unless you have an academic affiliation and can view it through Project Muse) entitled: “Strangulation from the Sea? A PRC Submarine Blockade of Taiwan” International Security – Volume 28, Number 4, Spring 2004, pp. 125-160. Worth the read for those interested in China’s naval capabilities, especially its submarine fleet.

Mike’s basic argument is that due to weaknesses in China’s submarine fleet, the threat of a successful blockade is vastly overstated.

October 29, 2006 @ 1:23 am | Comment

Two reasons why the Americans sell less than cutting edge weapons to Taiwan:

1. The Taiwanese military has trouble to “digest” new weapons programs as it is and is weak on training. The public may think that you simply buy the weapons and press a button, but it doesn’t work that way. The famous quote by a US officer who visited Taiwan, “We came expecting Israel, we left with Panama.”

2. Taiwanese military leaks like a sieve to China.

Regarding the price issue, I think Taiwan should reflect on the following:

a. USA sent Taiwan a lot of aid before.
b. USA opened its markets for Taiwan goods for many many years.
c. USA loses business with China every time it sells weapons to Taiwan.
d. If Taiwan thinks it can get a better price from the Dutch, the Canadians, or the Koreans, go ahead and buy from them. Oh, and you might want to confirm if those countries will also back Taiwan up with carrier groups and Marine units during a shooting war.

October 29, 2006 @ 1:55 am | Comment

[blockquote]

Michael said:

In S Korea anti-Americanism predates the Korean War, to the People’s Committees and primitive soviets that controlled the South after WWII, and who were destroyed by a US-led anti-guerilla war with the usual atrocities and mass killings. Prior to 1950, the Koreans already wanted us out.

[/blockquote]

There were atrocities on both sides, as in any war. Had those People’s Committees and primitive Soviets maintained control, Korea today would probably be united under the Kim Dynasty. While Rhee Syngman was busy offing his enemies with US help, Great Leader Kim Il-Sung was doing the same in the north with Soviet assistance. South Koreans had no say about the presence of US troops during decades of right-wing dictatorships, but now Koreans enjoy a multiparty democracy with a head of government who was elected on an anti-American platform. If the Koreans truly wanted us out, we would no longer be there as the enfranchised and politically organized Korean people possess the power and the means to force and end to the military alliance.

October 29, 2006 @ 2:54 am | Comment

http://tinyurl.com/ynj759

Looks like Young’s comments woke the KMT up…..

October 29, 2006 @ 4:54 am | Comment

I will say this about Taiwan and being American. At least there are whole different conversations happening there. In China it’s the same old tired conversations of imperialism, bombing the embassy, humiliation of a nation and human rights. I welcome these different subjects of contention from Taiwanese.

I’m going to go eat a banana now.

October 29, 2006 @ 11:02 am | Comment

Guys,

At issue is the interests of arms dealers in US, who are in the same camp of the Bushism that some of you so despise.
Don’t make yourself a fool just because you hate China so much.

It is right that Taiwan can purchase the stuffs elsewhere and it is also true that no one else would sell to Taiwan. However, the protest here was triggered by an “ultimatum” or “threat” by Stephen Young, who said, you MUST BUY THEM by certain deadline.

October 29, 2006 @ 12:57 pm | Comment

This is very uncharacteristic of me. I usually reserve my cynicism for the CCP. And people who know me well also know that I’m no supporter of Taiwan independence – very far from it. But for some reasons, I’ve been very cynical about this demonstration right from the beginning. My position still remains unchanged after reading almost 50 comments posted here at TPD. I’m not an American. So I don’t have this historical burden over Taiwan. I can’t really understand why you guys are so willing to subject yourselves to this false sense of guilt imposed on you by commenters such as “taiwan”.

From what I can see, those who orchestrated and/or supported the demonstration are deliberately being dishonest about Taiwan’s internal problem and they are trying to shift the blame on someone else. They claimed that the US is forcing them to buy obsolete weapons at highly inflated price. Stephen Young’s statement urging them to make a decision is interpreted as an “ultimatum” and therefore a “threat”. But if you read the “rawstory” link again carefully, you’ll notice that Taiwan has actually been sitting on this deal since 2001. In other words, the Taiwanese asked for a quotation from the US arms supplier 5 years ago. They can’t make a decision to have the budget approved but at the same time they are unwilling to let go of the weapon. When the supplier urged them to make a decision, they turned around and cried wolf. The weapon is obsolete because the Taiwanese can’t make up their mind and as time drags on, technology will naturally be superseded. So who is to blame? Who is actually the hypocrite here? No, the protest is not “triggered by an ‘ultimatum’”. It’s triggered by a need to shift the blame.

For once I agree with Michael Turton. This whole incident demonstrates how incompetent the pan-blue camp actually is: they are deliberately being obstructive over issues that they can’t arrive at a consensus within their own pan-blue camp. The pan-blue camp is so fragmented that they don’t even know what should be counted as Taiwan’s national interest. When they are caught out, they incite an anti-US sentiment and conveniently shift the blame. It looks as if the pan-blue leaders have, after all, learnt a few tricks from their CCP compatriots. Well done and ganbei to yet another major step towards unification!

October 29, 2006 @ 3:52 pm | Comment

Taiwan

Why should the US dance to the KMT’s tune? The US knows they want the weapons – they were begging for them before 2000. So the US has quite fairly said that if the KMT wants sales after 2008, they will have to put the politics aside and get on with it.

These systems won’t be delivered over-night – they take time to be produced and integrated. Time isn’t something that the country necessarily has.

And don’t push the “you hate China” nonsense. That just undermines your credibility.

October 29, 2006 @ 5:19 pm | Comment

Fat Cat, Taiwan has not been sitting on the deal since 2001. That’s the same misconception frequently rolled out. Just because the sale was authorised in 2001 doesn’t mean everything had been negotiated – Jesus, the US couldn’t even build submarines that were being proposed! It took years to get everything in place and prepared.

Also you rather have to remember there was the small matter of the Asian financial crisis – maybe Taiwan was trying to focus a bit on the economy. I’m not sure how the sale could have been justified back then.

October 29, 2006 @ 5:23 pm | Comment

Raj, would it be fair to say that the protest was staged in an effort to force the US to give further concesson for the weapon purchase? You can call me a stubborn cynic but sorry I still don’t believe that the protest was a spontaneous demonstration of public anger.

October 29, 2006 @ 10:05 pm | Comment

I am sure the taiwanese elites know that they need American support, if only to get the best negotiated deal when they re-unify with China. It will be more Hong-kong-like instead of Tibet-like.

October 29, 2006 @ 10:41 pm | Comment

Raj.

Yes, exactly. The KMT when in power wanted every weapon system they could get their hands on. Once they lost, they changed their tune.

Oh, I guess they can argue some sort of Greater China argument, which is fine by me, but they should be honest about it and stop playing the “America made me do it” card.

October 29, 2006 @ 11:42 pm | Comment

The comments on the arms purchase are divided according to Blue/Green split. So it is impossible to have a rational discussion.

The fact is, the demonstration is of very small scale — for larger scale look at the anti-bain red demo — and most people in Taiwan do not care, and they are not anti-american.

You are reading an isolated incident.

October 30, 2006 @ 1:24 am | Comment

Fat Cat

I have no idea – the US wouldn’t give concessions anyway, for the reasons expressed above about losing trade with China when sales go ahead.

October 30, 2006 @ 1:55 am | Comment

Sun bin, the incident was indeed small and insignificant. The anger about the US “forcing” arms on Taiwan is neither and is a hot-button issues for virtually every Taiwanese I spoke to (quite a few). None of those I spoke to are anti-American, but virtually all said this is an issue they’ve been hearing about for years and that everyone in Taiwan has an opinion about it. Many of those opinions are, to be brief, that America’s the bad guy.

October 30, 2006 @ 8:04 am | Comment

Sonagi> I just have a small quibble with what you wrote regarding Korea. If the US had not stepped in and helped out South Korea, the entire Korean peninsula would be one undemocratic mess, but I doubt Kim Il Sung’s clan would be running it. I have a feeling China would have stepped in an given support to rival generals sometime after the Soviet union collapsed, and those generals would have overthrown the Kims.

With a divided Korea, having KJI in power is better than a democratic, united Korea for China.

October 30, 2006 @ 5:51 pm | Comment

Countries have interests, not friends, and a country will act with what is in its interest. That applies to american, taiwan and all countries.

The US has a pact with taiwan currently in which it will protect taiwan if taiwan is attacked. That pact will be unwound bc the US already has too many committments. It will unwind the ones it can. Another fact is Japan will surely take on more responsibility for policing the trade lanes in east asia. Japan may even obtain its own nuclear weapons.. The US encourages Japan to take on more military responsiiblity.

As far as Taiwan moving closer with China it makes sense certainly from an economic and cultural perspective. Already Taiwan does a fairly large amount of trade with China indirectly which is inefficient. The long term problem for taiwan and its independence movement is the closer taiwan moves to china the further any notion of independence becomes a reality. At some point taiwan is likely to become so dependent on china that it will unite with china. China is happy to wait and can wait as long as it takes. What is interesting is why china puts up such a fight over little taiwan. They act, whenever taiwanese independence discussed, as if the sky is falling. My only conclusion there is if taiwan goes independent then it starts a domino effect where other chinese provinces demand independence– tibet, xinjiang, perhaps even guangzhou. And god forbit china doesnt want that.

As far as weapons are concerned it is absurd to think an independent taiwan has to buy anything from the US including antiquated weaponry. It doesnt. Just like the US doesnt have to guarantee taiwans defense or allow taiwan to sell freely without tariffs into the america. Furthermore, what is sold into taiwan is not antiquated weaponry. America’s interest is to sell sophesticated enough weaponry for taiwan to inflict enough damage on china if it is attacked to make china rethink any attack against taiwan.. The US will not sell its most sophesticated weapons to taiwan bc 1.) that would be considered a threat by china and could actually precipitate an attack from china duh, 2.) for US national security reasons, 3.) bc it doesnt need to in order to prevent the cost to china being too high to attack taiwan. So america renders a balance and sells what it does and taiwan gladly buys it.. Teh demogogery comes in like now– antiquated weapons!!!– when a group wants the money that is spent on weapons spent on itself. The same argument is made in US too; i.e, cut military to protect social security. What folk fail to understand is without security u got no social security or anything else..

November 3, 2006 @ 3:08 am | Comment

Countries have interests, not friends, and a country will act with what is in its interest. That applies to american, taiwan and all countries.

The US has a pact with taiwan currently in which it will protect taiwan if taiwan is attacked. That pact will be unwound bc the US already has too many committments. It will unwind the ones it can. Another fact is Japan will surely take on more responsibility for policing the trade lanes in east asia. Japan may even obtain its own nuclear weapons.. The US encourages Japan to take on more military responsiiblity.

As far as Taiwan moving closer with China it makes sense certainly from an economic and cultural perspective. Already Taiwan does a fairly large amount of trade with China indirectly which is inefficient. The long term problem for taiwan and its independence movement is the closer taiwan moves to china the further any notion of independence becomes a reality. At some point taiwan is likely to become so dependent on china that it will unite with china. China is happy to wait and can wait as long as it takes. What is interesting is why china puts up such a fight over little taiwan. They act, whenever taiwanese independence discussed, as if the sky is falling. My only conclusion there is if taiwan goes independent then it starts a domino effect where other chinese provinces demand independence– tibet, xinjiang, perhaps even guangzhou. And god forbit china doesnt want that.

As far as weapons are concerned it is absurd to think an independent taiwan has to buy anything from the US including antiquated weaponry. It doesnt. Just like the US doesnt have to guarantee taiwans defense or allow taiwan to sell freely without tariffs into the america. Furthermore, what is sold into taiwan is not antiquated weaponry. America’s interest is to sell sophesticated enough weaponry for taiwan to inflict enough damage on china if it is attacked to make china rethink any attack against taiwan.. The US will not sell its most sophesticated weapons to taiwan bc 1.) that would be considered a threat by china and could actually precipitate an attack from china duh, 2.) for US national security reasons, 3.) bc it doesnt need to in order to prevent the cost to china being too high to attack taiwan. So america renders a balance and sells what it does and taiwan gladly buys it.. Teh demogogery comes in like now– antiquated weapons!!!– when a group wants the money that is spent on weapons spent on itself. The same argument is made in US too; i.e, cut military to protect social security. What folk fail to understand is without security u got no social security or anything else..

November 3, 2006 @ 3:08 am | Comment

If the people of Taiwan do not like we Americans then I suggest we use our market as a retaliatory tool. We can simply keep all products made in Taiwan out of the USA. Americs is tired of bing the scapegoat for the World’s problems.

November 3, 2006 @ 11:04 am | Comment

Ames, I try not to get personal, but you’re a special case – you’re a true idiot. Based on this and your comment in another thread, you seem to be a chest-thumping xenophobe who believes in Amerika ueber alles with the right to bully and kick in the face any other nation that challenges us. Thanks for diminishing the quality of this thread.

November 3, 2006 @ 11:31 am | Comment

Taiwan can go to hell. The United States has done more for Taiwan than Taiwan has ever done for America.

Facts are facts. These people lack class and character. The USA gave Taiwan Billions in the 1950’s so it could survive. Using the US market to punish any nation that throws dirt in the faces of the American people is as American as apple pie and Chevrolet.

Richard: You you do not spell America with a K. it is AMERICA! As for diminishing the quality of the thread you need to be less biased and then maybe the thread will be of quality.

November 5, 2006 @ 3:34 am | Comment

I want to see one person here challenge my assertion that America has done more for Taiwan than Taiwan has ever done for America. Tell me I am wrong..Please…try. Taiwan has never and would never do a damn thing for America..EVER.

Tell me I am wrong. Tell me Richard. Then we will see who the real moron is. I am sick and tired of living in a world that bashes America. The world blames Bush and America for every God damed problem on the planet. It has become a sickness. The entire world has gone mad.

America need never aplogize. EVER. We have done more good than bad in ever dealing and exercise of any nature with Taiwan and the world. For these savages to claim otherwise is both intellectually dishonest and simply absurd.

November 5, 2006 @ 3:41 am | Comment

@Richard:
You are calling me a xenophobe when it is the Taiwanese who are dancing in the streets yelling “America we hate you.” You are one twisted bird. That is what we call the pot calling the kettle black.

Absurd logic Richard…absurd.

Americs has never thrown a rally where we said one damn negative thing about Taiwan. NEVER…EVER…

November 5, 2006 @ 5:54 am | Comment

@Everyone:

Thanks for the good posts. Me and my friends in Texas enjoy reading all of this..

Take care everyone!

November 5, 2006 @ 5:56 am | Comment

30 banana farmers.

November 5, 2006 @ 11:58 am | Comment