I’ve been waiting for this article to appear for some time now, and only wondered why it took so long. With the horrific bombing of the UN building in Iraq last week, I guess it’s time had come.

As far as I can tell from 12,000 miles away, there has been a real shift in just the past few weeks, with the UN bombing accelerating the process dramatically — a shift in the belief that Bush has proven himself invincible in restoring a sense of national security after September 11.

Just compare the mood today to that on the day he made his Top Gun landing and declared the combat in Iraq to be over. It is a shame that the combat isn’t over. But it’s also a shame that Bush chose to glamorize our great victory — as though it were a done deal — with such hubris. And he may pay a heavy price.

Here is how the article begins:

The wave of violent death this week in Iraq, Israel, Gaza and Afghanistan brought to the fore a reality that President Bush has been reluctant to discuss: Peace is not at hand.

A confident Bush stood in the Rose Garden less than a month ago, saying, “Conditions in most of Iraq are growing more peaceful,” boasting of “dismantling the al Qaeda operation” and pronouncing “pretty good progress” toward Middle East peace and a Palestinian state within two years.

Those sunny characterizations may yet prove true, but Bush allies and foes alike are coming to the conclusion that the progress may not be noticeable by the time Bush faces the voters again in 15 months. For a president who has staked his reputation on making “a tough decision to make the world more peaceful,” this could be a big problem.

We’ll probably see more and more of this if gloomy news keeps emanating from Iraq. After all, with the economy in shambles, unemployment at its worse in recent memory, and America’s image tarnished in the eyes of just about everybody overseas, what is Bush going to point to as his great success?