Here’s what Zogby says:
The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush beyond just the horserace. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry has shored up numerous constituencies in his base. The Bush team’s attempted outreach to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his potential growth in the electorate.
Oh frabjuous day. Holden distills the numbers from today’s Zogby poll:
Among Hispanic Voters:
Kerry 69%
Bush 19%Among Southern Voters:
Kerry 48%
Bush 46%Viewed Favorably in the South:
Kerry 55%
Bush 55%Approve of Bush’s Job Performance in the South: 44%
US Headed in the Right Direction in the South: 43%
Among Young Voters (18-29) :
Kerry 53%
Bush 33%Among Single Voters:
Kerry 69%
Bush 19%In the Red States:
Kerry 46%
Bush 48%In the Blue States:
Kerry 50%
Bush 38%Among People Who Did Not Vote in 2000:
Kerry 50%
Bush 25%
There is no way you can spin these numbers and say they’re positive for bush. This has to be alarming to the GOP, and I’ll bet the farm they’re working on their next set of dirty tricks right now.
I didn’t get a chance to blog Kerry’s speech last night because I had relatives over for dinner, and by now there are more than enough posts about Kerry’s performance. The one thing that’s amazed me is how so many bloggers and pundits came to wildly different conclusions about it. Sully said he liked Kerry less after the speech but went on to note lots of things in it he liked; Billmon hated the first half and liked the last half; Kevin Drum didn’t like the last half but liked the first half. InstaPuppy found plenty of bloggers who hated it (surprise) but Mickey Kaus said it served its purpose well. CNN interviewed a very conservative columnist for the NY Post immediately afterward (sorry, don’t remember his name) who said he now believes Kerry could really win. David Brooks on PBS thought it was great. Tom Oliphant didn’t. Reaction is more all over the map than I’ve ever seen. Not at all llike the reaction to Clinton’s speech, which was praised across the board, by his bitterest enemies and staunchest supporters.
My relatives and I sat transfixed over dinner as we watched Kerry speak last night, and we all thought it was masterful. Sure, there were some promises that will be impossible to keep, but there always are at conventions. What he did was instill confidence that he can be the commander in chief, and looking at the poll numbers above, there is no denying he was effective. Argue about his record and his alleged waffling, call him the No. 1 liberal, attack him for driving an SUV or not being clear whether he threw medals or ribbons, it doesn’t matter. Our nation, suffocating from Bush fatigue, longs for a change, and Kerry proved he can step up and take the reins.
The best moment for me was when he extended the olive branch to bush, asking if the negative attacks could be ended. Brilliant. Now, whenever the negative attacks come (and they sure will), the Dems can remind the public of Kerry’s offer and say, “There he goes again,” as Reagan said so effectively of Carter.
Looking at the poll above, I see how irrelevant most of our pundits are. The only true measure of the speech is those numbers, and we’ll see a lot more of them over the next few days.
One of the most interesting polls last week showed that the No. 1 concern of most Americans is, by far, the economy — and not taxes, which was way down the list. Iraq was next, and then terrorism. On the first two, bush is demonstrably weak. I believe he’s even weaker when it comes to terrorism, but he’s still perceived as Mr. Tough, though that image should fade more and more, especially as more Americans realize just how disastrous both Iraq and Afghanistan have become.
So bush is vulnerable on all fronts, while the Kerry campaign is infused with energy, enthusiasm and cash. Karl Rove sees this too, so I’m sure Bush’s Brain is running on overdrive. Hopefully the public has by now become immune to bush’s last-minute dirty tricks, but there’ll nevertheless be more on the way.
Apologies if this post rambled, and apologies for not giving links to some of the bloggers cited above; I’m just too tired to hunt them down.
Don’t forget to get your absentee ballots and to send them in on time. We finally have a chance to save our country, and the election really is Kerry’s to lose. Dethroning bush depends on each of us. Let’s make it happen. Even you, Conrad. Just do it.
1
By Tom - Daai Tou Laam
The one thing I noticed from Billmon’s post was MSNBC had that liar Mike Barnicle on as a commentator. After how the right slams the NYT for having a junior reporter make things up, it’s bad enough that the Boston Herald hires a guy who got thrown out of the Boston Globe for making stories up for his metro column, but now MSNBC has this liar on for analysis. How low can you go?
July 30, 2004 @ 9:05 pm | Comment
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By Peter Nolan
Media is vapour is fine, but being what George Soros would call a “market fundamentalist”, I try to look to harder metrics. The Iowa Electronic Markets, where all the academics, journalists and other people who think they’re the smart money go to bet on the race show the incumbent ahead on by a small margin.
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm
July 31, 2004 @ 12:06 am | Comment
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By guy
Zogby is a partisan Democrat. I’m not sure why you would chose to believe this poll which flies in the face of ALL the polls over at Rassmussen and Real Clear.
“Among Southern Voters:
Kerry 48%
Bush 46%”
Utter nonsense and we all know it.
July 31, 2004 @ 3:00 am | Comment
4
By vaara
The preceding Zogby poll dated 7/29 (and thus based on pre- and early-convention polling) had Kerry ahead 48-43%.
The corresponding Rasmussen poll showed Kerry beating Bush 48-45%.
Let me guess — Rasmussen is a partisan Democrat too. (And I’m Ann Coulter.)
July 31, 2004 @ 3:29 am | Comment
5
By guy
Vaara those are reasonable polls Kerry is ahead in those and Bush is ahead over at Real Clear it’s clearly a tight race and Zogby is dead wrong and partisan Democrat.
I would look for at least a Kerry lead of 10-15 points after the convention boost-that’s the post-convention norm.
July 31, 2004 @ 12:01 pm | Comment
6
By richard
I just put up another brief post on a newMSNBC poll.
I’m highly suspicious of the “10-15 points” bounce predicted by the Republicans because the nation is so polarized already — how can there possibly be such a huge bounce when there are so few undecideds? The Republican spin people put out those ridiculous numbers to set the bar at a level Kerry cannot possibly reach. 4 to 6 points is far more realistic. As to whether Zogby is “dead wrong” — we’ll certainly see in the days ahead, won’t we? Do you think he’s putting up false numbers? Do you think he’d sacrifice his reputation as a pollster, as Fox has, to make one side look good?
July 31, 2004 @ 12:15 pm | Comment
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By richard
Peter, you’re right, I heard about this site on CNN the other day. We’ll see, won’t we?
July 31, 2004 @ 12:16 pm | Comment
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By Reid
Hmmm… Well, the MSNBC poll is not among likely voters. It is also clearly partisan. A 5 point lead by Bush in a key area is dismissed with:
But, a 5 point lead by Kerry in another area is played up with:
Kerry is in the position of the prosecutor who has rested his case. He has nothing more to give, no more evidence to present. This is his high water mark.
August 1, 2004 @ 12:02 am | Comment
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By guy
“Do you think he’d sacrifice his reputation as a pollster..?
Reputation as a pollster-that’s a good one he only has a ‘reputation’ with Dems.
“I’m highly suspicious of the “10-15 points” bounce”
Again historically speaking this is what he should get but if the Newsweek poll is backed up by other polls Kerry’s bounce is the smallest in history.
August 1, 2004 @ 1:34 am | Comment
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By richard
He has nothing more to give, no more evidence to present. This is his high water mark.
Are you sure about that? The debates can make or break him, even more than the convention. They were the key reason Ronald Reagan won the presidency. So he has a lot more to give, much closer to the election. And his water mark can also rise or fall based on lots of factors, like Iraq, the economy, and anything else that might go wrong (or right) with the bush administration. So don’t call it over yet.
August 1, 2004 @ 11:44 am | Comment
11
By richard
You guys crack me up! Any poll that doesn’t show Bush winning is partisan. Keep trying; if all the other polls grossly contradict the Zogby and the MSNBC, then we’ll all know you’re right. (The only poll I won’t include and which is proven partisan is Fox, which does not employ true random sampoling, but instead “balances” the poll by including more Republicans to make sure both parties are represented evenly — an aberrant way to poll.)
The 10-point bounce might be “normal” but this is not your normal election. Too few undecideds for that kind of bounce! Okay, I’ll put my money where my mouth is: Will you make me a bet that bush gets a bounce above 10 points after his convention speech? I say he won’t. Name the amount, and I’ll make the bet. It’s technically all but impossible, but you guys seem to believe it should have happened for Kerry. And you call Zogby partisan??? Heh.
August 1, 2004 @ 11:51 am | Comment
12
By Angry Chinese Blogger
It’s easy to twist a poll but its far harder to twist the end count.
It’s the numbers counted at the end of the election that matter and let’s all remember dear Jeb Bush and his contribution to the Florida ballots.
Polls mean nothing if you don’t act on them, vote Bush, vote Kerry, just don’t complain about it if you sit on your hands and do nothing, and then don’t like whoever comes into office.
August 1, 2004 @ 7:41 pm | Comment
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By Lila Thacker
I’m from Ohio – and I’m voting for John Kerry!!
October 19, 2004 @ 8:17 am | Comment
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By richard
Great choice, Lila — and bring a friend.
October 19, 2004 @ 8:59 am | Comment