That’s the issue explored in this intriguing article in the UK Guardian.
By 2020, China will have overtaken Japan as the world’s second biggest economy. It may even have started to rival the US in terms of the hard power of its military. But if it is to achieve the government’s goal of once again being the world’s leading civilisation, the country will also have to acquire the “soft power” of universally appealing values.
How can it do that? Paradoxically, the best hope for softening China may be the same thing that poses its greatest threat: the HIV/Aids epidemic. China is on course to suffer the biggest epidemic of Aids in the world, but in the process it may find the illness acts as one of the main drivers for social change over the coming years.
“By 2020, Aids will have transformed society,” says Wan Yanhai, an Aids activist who was arrested two years ago for disclosing details about China’s HIV problem, which was then deemed a state secret. “Both people and the virus will be more active in China. It is not something we can ignore. People have to ask questions about their way of life, they have to get involved in social politics and get organised. From my personal experience I’m absolutely certain that this kind of activity will lead China towards a democracy.”
It offers several points of views, some extremely skeptical and pessimistic (such as AIDS activist Gao Yaojie, who points out just how little progress has actually been made in fighting the epidemic). Others say that like SARS, it will lead to greater political openness and change. (Whether SARS actually did lead to long-term, meaningful change is still highly debatable.)
No matter which opinion you agree with, the article certainly underscores the fact that due to the sheer size of the crisis, AIDS will inevitably change China’s future dramatically — whether it means leading the country to greater freedom and progress, or into becoming the next Africa.
Related post: AIDS in China
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By haikou homie
If they don’t do something now…..well….then take a strong hard look at Africa. When I lived in Zambia during 1998, the average life expectancy for a male was around 42. In less than 4 years it drop to around 36. AIDS was the reason why and China is by far more developed than Zambia so I hope they get to work.
September 13, 2004 @ 4:49 am | Comment
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By kevin
I recently read in the South China Morning Post about the construction of a new jail in Henan that AIDS activists said was being built for them. This was not a positive sign for me. So I guess that is another option, besides democracy, that might be simpler.
September 13, 2004 @ 7:39 pm | Comment
3
By Simon World
Asia by Blog
As seen on Instapundit… Hong Kong, Taiwan and China There’s a fundraiser next Tuesday in HK for Beslan victims. Will AIDS lead China to democracy? Tom looks more deeply into the winners and losers in HK’s recent election. There’s now a HK politician …
September 16, 2004 @ 1:20 am | Comment
4
By Simon World
Asia by Blog
As seen on Instapundit… Hong Kong, Taiwan and China There’s a fundraiser next Tuesday in HK for Beslan victims. Will AIDS lead China to democracy? Tom looks more deeply into the winners and losers in HK’s recent election. There’s now a HK politician …
September 16, 2004 @ 1:27 am | Comment
5
By Simon World
Asia by Blog – Month in Review
This is cross-posted at Winds of Change. Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature, posted on Mondays and Thursdays (the latest edition is here). You can be notified by email when it is updated, just drop me an email at simon-[at]-simonworld-[dot]-mu-[dot…
September 28, 2004 @ 12:51 am | Comment
6
By Simon World
Asia by Blog – Month in Review
This is cross-posted at Winds of Change. Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature, posted on Mondays and Thursdays (the latest edition is here). You can be notified by email when it is updated, just drop me an email at simon-[at]-simonworld-[dot]-mu-[dot…
September 28, 2004 @ 12:57 am | Comment
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By Winds of Change.NET
Simon’s E. Asia Overview & PRC News: Sep 28/04
It’s time to have a look at East Asia and what’s been making the news in Asian blogs over the past month. We cover China (in depth), as well as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore et. al).
September 28, 2004 @ 1:08 am | Comment
8
By Winds of Change.NET
Simon’s E. Asia Overview & PRC News: Sep 28/04
It’s time to have a look at East Asia and what’s been making the news in Asian blogs over the past month. We cover China (in depth), as well as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore et. al).
September 28, 2004 @ 1:14 am | Comment