Last week, several blogs, especially those to the right, seized on a fascinating story of a bloody riot in the Chinese village of Huankantou as evidence of China’s being on the brink of internal collapse. The language was dire, and it wasn’t only the warblogger types who were making the claims. Angry Chinese Blogger did an excellent job chronicling the incident. He (she?), too, warned that there might be dire implications for the CCP.
The recent rise in unrest has Beijing concerned for a number of reasons, not least of all because the potential for isolated incidents of unrest to spread in a so called ‘domino effect’ by which news of a lax response to protests in one region might embolden protestors in another, or news of a heavy handed response might enrage others into action.
The presence of nationalist roots in violent anti-Japanese demonstrations is particularly worrying to Beijing.
Using nationalists to rally people against Japan has been a useful tool for China, drawing people towards a single unified external cause and away from domestic issues but, should nationalist elements feel that Beijing isn’t doing enough to pressure Japan, they could easily turn on Beijing. Using their organizational structure and support to form a political or physical opposition to the government.
So where do we stand now, a week later? According to the most recent article, the euphoria that came with the uprising in Huankantou has been replaced by something more akin to dread.
In driving off more than 1,000 riot police at the start of the week, Huankantou village in Zhejiang province is at the crest of a wave of anarchy that has seen millions of impoverished farmers block roads and launch protests against official corruption, environmental destruction and the growing gap between urban wealth and rural poverty.
China’s media have been forbidden to report on the government’s loss of control, but word is spreading quickly to nearby towns and cities. Tens of thousands of sightseers and wellwishers are flocking every day to see the village that beat the police.
But the consequences for Huankantou are far from clear.
Having put more than 30 police in hospital, five critically, the 10,000 residents should be bracing for a backlash. Instead, the mood is euphoric. Children have not been to school since Sunday’s clash. There are roadblocks outside the chemical factory that was the origin of the dispute. Late at night the streets are full of gawping tourists, marshalled around the battleground by proud locals who bellow chaotic instructions through loudspeakers….
But in Huankantou, villagers do not seem to realise that although they have won the battle, they may be far from winning the war.
Amid a crowd of locals beside a wrecked bus, one middle-aged woman won a cheer of approval by calling for the government to make the first move towards reconciliation.
“It’s up to them to start talking,” she said. “I don’t know what we would do if the police came back again, but our demand is to make the factory move out of the village [a polluting factory that was ruining farmers’ crops]. We will not compromise on that.”
I’ve always been of the school that for all the improvements in China, there is a huge groundswell of resentment, mainly fueled by corruption and poverty, that might be ignited at any time — but only under the right circumstances. When I first heard about this story, I felt a profound sense that this was not such a catalytic event: It involved too few victims, it wasn’t of a regime-threatening scale, and there were still too many positive things going on throughout China to soften rage against the regime (namely, the economy). I believe if and when the Big Event occurs that throws the CCP into life-threatening chaos, it will, as with most revolutions, be an economic event, like a failing of the banks, hyperinflation or deflation.
So is this story now dead in the water, or is it a sign of more massive riots and violence to come? Some of the warbloggers said they had it “on good authority” that we haven’t seen anything yet and that the CCP is indeed on the verge of collapse. That was last week, and now the story seems to have little life to it. So what did Huankantou mean? Tempest in a teapot or tragic foreshadowing of new and more lethal violence to come?
Update: Looking back at the original post that piqued my interest in this story, I have to wonder about its chief contention:
Huge riots are occurring, not just in the remote, impoverished west, but now in the wealthier coastal cities. At issue is corruption and impunity. And with the rise of mass communications and Internet connectivity, Chinese expectations about governance are rising. A billion people are getting sick of all the corruption and oppression they see around them.
The root of the problem is this: the government will not renounce unworkable communism as its philosophy. It says communism is its system but capitalism is its policy. That contradiction leaves the worst bureaucratic and political features of communism in place (you can’t get rid of anyone via ballot box, for one thing), while the growing private sector watches the horror from an increasingly capitalist framework. This is big news. Thomas explains that China’s repression is not a sign of its government’s strength, but its weakness. Read it here.
I just want to ask my friends in China, and those conected with China: IS THIS TRUE? Are huge anti-government riots breaking out across China with the backing of 1 billion peasants? And if so, is the ideology of capitalism versus communism at the heart of the protests, as the blogger claims? I’m just trying to separate the wheat from the chaff because, to my bemusement and amazement, some normally smart bloggers have been saying essentially the same thing as Publius.
Look, I’m perfectly willing to acknowledge it if it’s true, and I can’t say I’d be all that upset to see the CCP reap some of the misery its sown (if that in turn leads to a better system). But where is the proof?? I’ve heard of riots on and off in China for years, and this one was certainly more violent than most, but does that mean we are on the brink of the CCP’s collapse? For now, I have no choice but to say no, not because I’m picking sides but because the key finger-pointers, with Glenn Reynolds’ blessing, aren’t backing up the claims with anything resembling substance. And their attempt to portray it as a riot against the CCP for not renouncing communism is absurd. No one cares about that, as lon as there’s food on the table. Most peasants aren’t willing to die for communism vs. capitalism, only if their lives, health, wealth and well being are threatened.
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