Good news:

Lu Banglie, the Chinese democracy activist who was savagely beaten at the weekend, has been found injured but alive.

Mr Lu has told the Guardian that he was battered unconscious and later driven hundreds of miles to his home town where he is now recuperating. Civil rights lawyers said they were considering a legal case against his attackers, thought to be a group of thugs hired by the local authorities to put down an anti-corruption campaign against the chief of Taishi village.

According to the Guardian, here is Mr. Lu’s own account of his attack:

“Five to six of them pulled my hair and punched me in the head. They kicked my legs and body for a couple of minutes. Then I passed out. Some people splashed water on me which brought me round, then I passed out again.” When he came to, he was being driven back to Hubei.

The propaganda office said Mr Lu had been picked off the road near Taishi at 9pm – an hour after the assault – taken to a nearby hospital for a check-up and then at 1.30am driven out of the area.

The Pan Yu propaganda office said there had been “no violence” and that Mr Lu had “pretended to be dead”.

Mr Lu said such claims were laughable. “When I came around, I was too nauseous to eat. My body aches all over and my head hurts.” But he said only his arm was visibly wounded.

His supporters, who include lawyer Gao Jisheng, say they are considering legal action. The Guardian has asked the Guangdong authorities to investigate the attack but a spokeswoman said a response would be made in the next few days. Mr Lu said he was aware of the dangers and had no regrets about going to Taishi. “I believe you cannot write off truth. The authorities control the village tightly. They try to prevent news from leaking out, which hurts not only the democratisation of Taishi village but the entire country.”

Update [by Richard]: Rebecca MacKinnon has some important words of wisdom to add:

At the same time, I hope this question of a foreign correspondent’s responsibility will not become a convenient way of distracting people from the core issue: one of human rights and the suppression of a democracy movement in Taishi.

Will Chinese netizens be successfully manipulated into foreigner-bashing as an acceptable alternative to communist party-bashing?

Are you listening, Chinese netizens?

The liberal Asahi Shimbun recently revealed that Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Forces (GSDF) have made detailed plans for an attack from China. Since Japan and the United States issued a joint statement recognizing China as a military threat and Taiwan as the most likely potential flashpoint, this is the first time that military plans involving China have come to light.

Although the defense plan assessed the chances of any military attack from China as “small”, parts of the government and media called the China threat “highly exaggerated” and accused the GSDF of using it to maintain its funding and status. The Japan Defense Agency responded by saying that “Japan and its Self-Defense Forces must be prepared for any situation, even the worst possible case scenario”.

The “strictly confidential” defense plan was worked out by the GSDF in 2003-2004 and lists and analyzes various scenarios that could take place between 2004 and 2008. It also formally establishes North Korea and China as the main threats instead of Russia.

Firstly, the plan states that Japan will continue to depend on the United States for its nuclear deterrent. Secondly, the plan envisions two China attack scenarios:

Japan-China relations deteriorate, or tensions heighten over natural resources in the sea area near the disputed Senkaku islands in the East China Sea. As a result, China sends troops to the Senkaku islands to secure Beijing’s interests. Japan would respond by sending troops from Kyushu to the main island of Okinawa or other southern islands. The Air Self-Defense Force or the Maritime Self-Defense Force would deal with the Chinese troops who have landed on the Senkaku islands. GSDF troops would wipe out the remaining Chinese forces and take back the islands.

In the second scenario:

Tempers flare between China and Taiwan after Taipei declares independence. The United States, supported by Japan, intervenes, and Chinese military forces attack SDF facilities or U.S. military bases in Japan. The GSDF would dispatch core troops to the islands south of Okinawa’s main island, and send in other forces from Kyushu or Shikoku, depending on the situation. To deal with possible Chinese guerrilla attacks in urban areas of Japan, the GSDF would transfer troops from Hokkaido to cities under siege, and prepare to dispatch specially trained forces to protect SDF and U.S. bases.

Regarding the first scenario, it is conceivable that China might initially occupy disputed islands in the East China Sea as not only does China claim islands such as the Senkakus/Diaoyutais, but also significant parts of the sea itself. In addition, China adopted a similar strategy of occupying island chains during the Mainland-Taiwan wars of the 1950s. In any future China-Taiwan conflict, it is also possible that China would attack the highly equipped and heavily manned U.S. military bases in Japan. This would almost certainly drag Japan into the conflict or at least put an end to any neutral status. In such a scenario, it would be interesting to see what North Korea and Russia would do – China’s only real allies in the region.

In the last couple of weeks, warnings regarding the threat of a new bird-flu pandemic have flooded out of organizations like the WHO, APAC and the health ministries of various regional governments. Since the SARS outbreak, most people have become immune to such health warnings. After all, it’s impractical to constantly live in fear. However, should we now be taking note of the latest global wake-up call? The warnings have also included critical assessments that no country is adequately prepared for any large outbreak.

The U.N. bird-flu coordinator recently warned that the risk of a global pandemic is now at its highest since the 1968 outbreak and that a new pandemic could kill between 5 and 150 million people. However, the WHO then qualified that statement by saying that 7.4. million (about the population of Hong Kong) was a “more reasonable figure”. Certainly the odds are not in our favour, the University of Otago’s School of Medicine and Health Sciences, recently said that experts all believe a flu pandemic is inevitable at some point as past records show that there are between 3 and 4 such catastrophes every century.

Since 2003, bird flu has killed more than 60 people in Southeast Asia, mainly Vietnam. However, there have also been bird flu outbreaks in Turkey, Romania, Russia and Kazakhstan – raising fears that the virus has already spread beyond Asia.

The fear of an outbreak is based around the fact that poultry is already being used as a reservoir for H5N1 and another strain of the virus, that is both highly infectious and deadly to humans, will eventually mutate. Initial reports by the WHO show that this has already happened in Indonesia, i.e. the virus mutated, was passed on to humans and affected chickens but did not kill them. However, these reports remain unconfirmed.

Most microbiologists agree that the bird flu virus could now be at a crucial stage and it’s just a matter of time before a mutated form of the virus gets lucky and is able to spread to humans. In addition, if the virus is new, which it probably will be, then there will not be any available cures or remedies and will be able to spread through human populations unmolested. This is the worst-case scenario for health experts and the root of all “ecological terrorist” and “the world will collapse” theories.

The last global pandemic was the H1N1 Spanish Flu virus in 1918-19. This was a strain of bird flu that mutated into a form of the virus that was able to spread to humans. It was so virulent that it often targeted the young and healthy, killing people within days as their ravaged lungs filled with blood. Spanish Flu killed 50 million people at a time when international travel was nowhere near as prevalent as it is today.

UPDATE: Burma Watch asks why bird-flu, according to the ruling military junta, appears to have completely skipped Burma.

Ah, liberty.

Iraq has issued arrest warrants against the defense minister and 27 other officials from the U.S.-backed government of former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi over the alleged disappearance or misappropriation of $1 billion in military procurement funds, officials said Monday.

Those accused include four other ministers from Allawi’s government, which was replaced by an elected Cabinet led by Shiite parties in April, said Ali al-Lami of Iraq’s Integrity Commission. Many of the officials are believed to have left Iraq, including Hazem Shaalan, the former defense minister who moved to Jordan shortly after the new government was installed.

As we say, your tax dollars at worth. Looking at the Delay and Abrahmoff indictments, I have to conclude we can’t really blame these Iraqi officials, who are simply following in the footsteps of their freedom-loving mentors. One aspect of freedom is, perhaps, the freedom to get rich at the expense of others, to see what you want and then take it regardless of the consequences. Give them credit for being fast learners.

Well, he’s certainly not my favorite blogger, but his post on the barbarism in Taishi and the push for democracy among those people who don’t give a damn about democracy is worth a look. The Rebecca MacKinnon post to which he links is also a must-read.

Update: Perhaps Running Dog says it best.

Today is the “Double-Tenth” – National Day of the Republic of China. The ROC, established by Sun Yat Sen in 1912, ended 2,000 years of imperial rule in China.

Today, the ROC is in historical limbo, the Mainland threatens and pressurizes Taiwan’s democratically elected government not to change its anachronistic constitution – or any formal acknowledgment of the ROC – while many Taiwanese residents reject the ROC constitution as one of the last remaining vestiges of the Chinese Nationalist colonial government.

The military parades and calls to take back the Mainland of the past are no more. Instead, President Chen Shuibian, speaking today, called for a massive military build-up to thwart the growing threat from China and vowed to continue the Democratic Progressive Party’s radical reform agenda.

For the last several years, funding for a large U.S. arms deal has been consistently blocked in the KMT-led Taiwanese legislature. Earlier this week, the KMT kept the bill off the legislative agenda for the 31st time. The U.S. – pledged to defend Taiwan – is running out of patience. Last month, Edward Ross, a senior Pentagon official, provided the most public evidence of Washington’s growing frustration:

“As the lone superpower, our interests are plentiful and our attention short,” Ross told a U.S.-Taiwan Business Council meeting. “We cannot help defend you if you cannot defend yourself.” No one expects Taiwan to match China’s much higher military spending, Ross added. What Washington does expect is a willingness by Taiwan to face head-on the growing Chinese security threat that is allowing Beijing to negotiate the future of cross-strait relations from a position of strength, he said.

Speaking today, President Chen echoed these worries:

“Taiwan must not rely on some other countries to defend itself. The severest worry in Taiwan’s national security lies in the fact that Taiwan has yet to demonstrate confidence in our own defense capability. We cannot expect to rely on others for Taiwan’s own self-defense. Instead, we must shoulder the responsibilities to build up sufficient national defense, psychological defense and civil defense.

President Chen faces a mountain of problems. Despite trying every which way to pass the arms bill, including slashing the total budget to almost half of the original US$19 billion, the Pan-Blue alliance continue to oppose it and enjoy majority support in the Taiwan legislature. The radical reform agenda divides the Taiwanese electorate along green and blue lines and is also opposed by the U.S. as it provokes China and threatens the status quo. After all, Taiwan already enjoys de facto ind3pendence from the PRC.

Horrific, shocking story in today’s UK Guardian:

One of China’s leading dem0cr@cy activists has been beaten, possibly to death, in front of a Guardian journalist. Lu B@nglie was last seen lying unconscious on the side of the road on Saturday night after an assault by a mob which had joined forces with police to stop a car containing him, the Guardian’s Shanghai correspondent, Benjamin Joffe-Walt, and two other people.

They were on their way to Taishi, a village in the southern province of Guangdong which has become the latest flashpoint in a growing wave of rural unrest that is proving the greatest threat to the rule of the Communist party since the Ti@n@nm3n Squ@re protests in 1989.

Mr Lu, one of a new breed of peasant leaders elected without the support of the party, had been in the area on the outskirts of Guangzhou city since August, encouraging residents to vote out officials accused of corruption…

…In Saturday’s attack, Joffe-Walt said the car was stopped on a road outside Taishi by a group of about five police, five soldiers and as many as 50 people in plain clothes. The uniformed men soon left and then the mob set upon Mr Lu, dragging him out of the car and kicking him unconscious. They continued the assault for several minutes after he lost consciousness. “I was convinced he was dead and thought they were going to do the same to us,” said Joffe-Walt. But he, his assistant and their driver escaped with being roughed up.

Hum@n r1ghts activists in China were shocked by the story, saying that this level of violence is unprecendented. The most telling statement comes from Ho Wenzhou, of the Empowerment and R1ghts Institute:

“This is an attack not just on Lu but on all people who work for grassroots d3mocr@cy and hum@n 1ghts in China. It reveals the mafia-isation of local governments.”

To me, “mafia-isation” perfectly describes what has gone on as ideology and totalitarianism have loosened their grip on today’s China. We should all be grateful that for many Chinese people, the quality of life has improved and the range of personal freedom greatly expanded. I also believe that the central government has made some positive steps in in their struggle to establish a more coherent set of rules and regulations by which businesses and government agencies should function, particularly in areas such as environmental regulation. But they seem to lack the ability to enforce these good intentions on a local level. And this recent media crackdown does Beijing no favors. A more independent media at least could provide some feedback on what is really going on, in those places where the Emperor is far away.

What seems to be emerging in today’s China is not the Rule Of Law, it’s the Rule of the Mob.

Thanks to Zhuanjia for the tip.

Japanese daily Sankei Shinbun, citing a source from the foreign ministry, reports that Prime Minister Koizumi might visit the Yasukuni Shrine sometime between mid-October and early Novemeber. However, any visit would be timed to avoid coinciding with official visits to Toyko by U.S. President Bush and Korean President Roh Moo-hyun as well as the APEC Summit meeting later this year.

Koizumi made his last visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in January 2004. Last month, the Osaka High Court ruled that any visit to the shrine by the Prime Minister made in a public capacity would be unconstitutional, citing Article 20 of the Constitution which prohibits the state from engaging in religious activity. However, the court also ruled that Prime Minister Koizumi’s visits were private.

Britain’s “The Spoof” Magazine sums up the difference between Asian typhoons and North American hurricanes:

After hoping for a windfall of world attention, Chinese authorities are disappointed to report only 5,000 homes destroyed and 31,000 acres of crops wiped out. “We expected a lot more out of Longwang, especially after all the hype,” Chinese authorities said today.

It quickly became apparent that Longwang was no match for Katrina in terms staying power in the news. As opposed to Katrina’s continued dominance in the media, Longwang has quietly limped out of the world’s headlines, much to the chagrin of China. Hoping to draw as much attention to Longwang as the U.S. enjoyed with Katrina’s international exposure, China now finds itself on the short-end of the stick in terms of global sympathy. “No one is interested in hearing about China’s Longwang when the U.S. is still showing pictures of Katrina’s wild swing through New Orleans,” said a journalist for China’s main newspaper. Some suspect that China hoped to parlay any wide-spread typhoon damage into an international aid scheme and have been disappointed by Longwang’s poor performance.

Note to non-native English speakers: “Spoof” means to joke, hoax, parody or satire.

This is a guest contribution from Bill Stimson.
———————————————————————

China‘s Leader Is Not The Man
by William R. Stimson

China today has a very “happening” leader. One can only marvel at his demonstrated ability to consolidate a tighter and tighter hold over such a vast and diverse region. The internet is more controlled in China than anywhere in the world. Cell phone messages and chat room postings are monitored on an ongoing basis and soon the same will be true for text messages. All non-government organizations — even such environmental groups as those struggling to save the panda and other endangered species — must shut down unless they can find government sponsorship. From now on, when some little old lady in New Zealand mails off a check to save the panda, the money may well end up in the back pocket of a Communist Party boss. This isn’t what China needs.

These and other repressive measures have supposedly been put in place in response to a perceived foreign threat. But there is no foreign threat to the Chinese government or to China. Everybody wants China to work things out on its own and in its own unique way. China is just too big and dangerous to be tampered with from the outside. Look at the crazy mess the meddling Americans made in Iraq. Nobody is going to meddle in China’s affairs. The whole world is on China’s side. Nobody is trying to keep it down. Everybody acknowledges its eventual leadership.

Only, the world wants a real China, a China whose people have access to information about the world as it really is — not a China that is thought-controlled and hate-mongered. The other day I met a young fellow from South Dakota at the Chinese-language school here in Taiwan where I study Mandarin. He’d just finished a stint in Mainland China as a college English teacher. He described how his students there stood up before the class and made presentations, which were nearly identical hate-filled diatribes against Japan or an independent Taiwan. The students were all brainwashed with an identical twisted view of the world. They couldn’t think for themselves. A China with minds like this, ruling the world, would be a disaster. The world doesn’t need or want such a China under such a leader. The prospect, as the Japanese have pointed out, is “scary.” What the world needs is exactly what China needs — for China itself, not its leader, to happen.

China has had too many “happening” leaders. It doesn’t need another. It needs to be free. The Chinese people are smart enough to take care of the rest. They were given economic freedom and the Chinese economy happened, in spite of the government and the party. Now they must be given intellectual, political, and organizational freedom. Only then will China really happen – despite its government and party. The government and party will benefit immeasurably, and certainly claim credit, but they won’t be behind China’s happening. Freedom — this is what will have done the trick. That’s the point that the brave youths gunned down in Tienaman Square were trying to get across to their countrymen. China needs to be free if it is to happen. China, the biggest, and perhaps brightest, of nations — only needs, at long last, this one thing.

In the name of “stability” its current leader is doing everything in his power to stifle the one and only requirement for his nation to be great. Stability cannot be imposed artificially and self-servingly like he is trying to do from the top. What results is the fragile, brittle, corrupt, and lifeless system that the unfortunate Chinese know only too well. Stability must come about, like everything alive and everything real, in an organic, almost biological fashion from every direction at once, by allowing all aspects of China to grow with freedom and with checks-and-balances into resplendent and interdependent health.

One Chinaman, long ago — the great Lao Tzu — wrote a book about this way of growth. His view was that, with the true leader, no one knows he’s leading. China doesn’t need another leader, out to make himself big, like Mao did, again and again, at China’s expense. It’s had too much of that already. More than ever now, China needs a true leader, a man who will make China, not himself, happen. That leader will lead not just China, but all nations. The present leader is not that man.

* * *

William R. Stimson is a writer living in Taiwan. His writing can be found at www.billstimson.com