A very small, rushed post about some very big changes that are about to take place in my life. On Saturday I’m off to the island of Kinmen for a two-day project and I fly directly to Vietnam for a two-week trip with my family (Vietnam, Cambodia and a bit of Thailand). So needless to say, there’s going to be another dramatic slowdown over here (guest bloggers interested in putting up posts in my absence can send me an email).

But the real changes take place when I get back on October 16. Bottom line is I will start working part-time so I can study Chinese five days a week. This is something I’ve dreamed of doing for a long time, and I am incredibly grateful to my company for allowing me to do it. How long this situation will last I can’t say, but my guess is I’ll be sticking around Taiwan until winter ends. And then…and then… Well, we’ll just have to wait and see. But I definitely have some ideas. And so does my company. More as the situation unfolds.

Good for him. The blogger poihts out this hasn’t been confirmed (thus the question mark in the headline), but it sounds like a good idea.

Bush always has a soft landing, and revelations that would have resulted in Clinton’s or even Papa Bush’s crucifixion bounce off the boy-man like rubber bands. I’m sure you’ve all heard the story by now of the report by 16 government intelligence services that basically indicts the Bush administration for creating a new and more zealous generation of terrorists thanks to the fuck-up in Iraq. I predict, however, that this story will go nowhere, devastating though it might have proven for any other US president. But no other president had the force of the Wurlitzer behind him. Greenwald explains:

Only in the U.S., with its toxic mix of Bush administration propaganda and media listlessness, could it ever even be a question open to debate whether invading, bombing and occupying a Muslim country in the Middle East for almost four years would fuel Muslim radicalism, inflame anti-American resentment, and create far more terrorists than ever existed before. And only in the current political climate where up is down could the political party directly responsible for severely exacerbating the terrorism problem with a pointless, disastrous and seemingly endless war have their chances for victory depend upon maximizing the country’s focus on terrorism — the very problem they have so severely exacerbated.

So, a recap of the Iraq war: there were never any WMDs. The proliferation of government death squads and militias in Iraq means that, compared to the Saddam era, human rights have worsened and torture has increased to record levels. Iranian influence has massively increased, as a result of a Shiite fundamentalist government loyal to Tehran replacing the former anti-Iranian regime. We’ve squandered hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of lives. And we have — according to the consensus of our own intelligence community — directly worsened the terrorist problem with our invasion, and continue to worsen it with our ongoing occupation.

How can anyone claim with a straight face that this war was a good idea?

Leave it to Karen Hughes and Karl Rove. They’ll take care of it with some talking points and position papers. They’ll find out that somone in one of the 16 agencies once gave money to a liberal or, even worse, had a Moslem uncle. They are in over-drive already, pumping away to undermine the whole thing, claiming, as always, that the whole thing is a trick brought to you by the wicked MSM. They do it every time and they always win. Will we let them win again in November? Stay tuned.

We’ve heard it before, the pluses and minuses, the maze of contradictions that is present-day China. Schell itemizes these in two convenient lists to show how China is, on the one hand, incredibly robust, and on the other hand frighteningly brittle. He then concludes:

How can such contradictions be reconciled? The best everyone can hope for is steady piecemeal change. For the Chinese the contradictions don’t really bite so long as they have continued economic growth to focus on and to absorb some of the problems. But what happens when there’s a break in that growth? It could come from inside China or from outside (such as a disruption in the US economy).

It’s hard to look at the China boom now without thinking about the Japan boom in the 1970s and ’80s, remembering how everyone knew the Japanese were going dominate the US and world economy, and we all had to study Japanese methods to learn how to compete. Then that went away, and it hasn’t come back.

The leadership of China is highly aware of the environmental problems and is enlightened and ambitious about green solutions, but that attitude does not yet extend beyond the leadership, and until it does, not much can happen.

That’s China: huge, consequential for everybody, and profoundly unresolved.

When the day of reckoning finally comes, that inevitable “break in the growth” – inflation, deflation, recession, whatver – we’ll have a far clearer picture of just how sustainable and meaningful China’s undeniable rise really is. Until then, I expect to hear more of the same, including parents rushing to teach their children Mandarin and a never-ending stream of articles salivating over the New China. Those articles may well be justified, but for now we just don’t know.

Via CDT.

Stuff Happens Again in Baghdad
By FRANK RICH
Published: September 24, 2006

IT’S not just about torture. Even if there had never been an Abu Ghraib, a Guantanamo or an American president determined to rewrite the Geneva Conventions, America would still be losing the war for hearts and minds in the Arab world. Our first major defeat in that war happened at the dawn of the Iraq occupation, before ‘detainee abuse’ entered our language: the ‘Stuff happens!’ moment at the National Museum in Baghdad.

Three and a half years later, have we learned anything? You have to wonder. As the looting of the museum was the first clear warning of disasters soon to come, so the stuff that’s happening at the museum today is a grim indicator of where we’re headed in Iraq: America is empowering the very Islamic radicals this war was supposed to smite. But even now we seem to be averting our eyes from reality on the ground in Baghdad.

(more…)

Hilarious.

The very worst -case scenario has come true, and one blogger had it all figured out in advance. Digby has the best post out there on how Bush and the “Gang of Four” Republicans who opposed his amendments to the war crimes act actually worked in concert, making Bush look good beyond words. Not only is he “tough” on terrorists, but he has the patience and diplomatic skills to work with “the opposition” to craft a wise and reasonable “compromise.” Except, as Diby shows, there is no compromise, there was no real opposition and Bush gets absolutely everything he wanted and more.

And by forcing the Congress to vote on it shortly before the elections, it becomes a litmus test of whether you are loyal to America. This is political cynicism at its very best, and it is a brilliant example of how Bush-Rove stage-manage elaborate stunts to create a powerful image, whether it’s on an aircraft carrier or the Senate floor. Republicans – strong, virile and reasonable. Democrats – cowardly, disorganized, weak. Sure, we all know it’s a trick, an illusion. But it makes me increasingly terrified that the GOP is about to make a sensational comeback and hold onto the House. In fact, until I’m convinced otherwise, until I see the Dems take back the microphone and start getting their own messages out, I am officially predicting a Republican upset. They will win in November. Not across the board, but they’ll do far better than any of us expected. Go read the Digby post to see just how beautifully they played the media on this. Appearances. They’re all that matter. Republicans have raised “positioning” to a high art form, while the Dems still don’t get it.

And now, we have to face the sad fact that we have officially sanctioned torture, and will protect Americans who carry it out.

The bad news is that Mr. Bush, as he made clear yesterday, intends to continue using the CIA to secretly detain and abuse certain terrorist suspects. He will do so by issuing his own interpretation of the Geneva Conventions in an executive order and by relying on questionable Justice Department opinions that authorize such practices as exposing prisoners to hypothermia and prolonged sleep deprivation. Under the compromise agreed to yesterday, Congress would recognize his authority to take these steps and prevent prisoners from appealing them to U.S. courts. The bill would also immunize CIA personnel from prosecution for all but the most serious abuses and protect those who in the past violated U.S. law against war crimes.

Once again, Bush pulls off a coup. And once again, America becomes in the eyes of the world a far different nation than it was a few short years ago. A smaller nation, a more petty and paranoid nation. We keep slipping from bad to worse, and one can only wonder where we we’ll finally end up. Grim. A grim day for all of us, and a chilling reminder of the legalized thuggery for which the Bush administration stands.

Yesterday it was China’s top-10 dudes, today it’s the country’s top-10 girls – for those of you who are into that sort of thing.

Howard French writes of how China’s affluent are going the whole nine yards to give their kids a leg up in today’s competitive world. Paying huge sums to teach their children, how to speak English with a Western accent, how to play golf and polo, and how to eat chicken and watermelon without spitting the detritus back onto their plates, China’s wealthiest parents are funding what sounds like a thriving new industry.

Every weekday this summer, Rose Lei drove her daughter, Angelina, 5, to a golf complex at the edge of central Shanghai for a two-hour, $200 individual lesson with a teaching pro from Scotland.

But now that the school year has started, little Angelina will have to cut back on the golf, limiting herself to weekend sessions at a local driving range. In addition to her demanding school schedule, she will be attending private classes at FasTracKids, an after-school academy for children as young as 4 that bills itself as a junior M.B.A. program.

Ms. Lei, 35, a former information technology expert and the wife of a prosperous newspaper advertising executive, is part of a new generation of affluent parents here who are planning ways to cement their children’s place in a fast-emerging elite.

A generation ago, when people still dressed in monochromes and acquiring great wealth, never mind flaunting it, was generally illegal, the route to success was to join the right Communist Party youth organization or to attend one of the best universities.

Now the race starts early, with an emphasis not on ideology but on the skills and experiences the children will need in the elite life they are expected to lead. In addition to early golf training, which has become wildly popular, affluent parents are enrolling their children in everything from ballet and private music lessons, to classes in horse riding, ice-skating, skiing and even polo.

I can’t begrudge these people their success, and if I could afford it and I had children, I’d probably do the same things they’re doing. Of course, it’s hard not to compare the haves with the have-nots and to despair at the widening gulf between them. But then again, it’s a cruel, heartless and unfair world out there, especially in China, where it often seems the only way to survive is to adopt an every-man-for-himself mentality.

The rather short list focuses on Shanghai, with the one exception being the Beijing stadium featured above. Actually, I don’t find the buildings featured in the post to be that ugly, but the aforementioned stadium and the caption the blogger wrote to describe it were worthy of a post:

The National Stadium in Beijing – 42,000 tons of pure steel fugliness. What Batman’s nest would look like if he were really a bat, and if bats made nests.

This is via the Shanghaist, and it brought back memories of one of my posts from two years ago. Still, for sheer, unbridled ugliness, nothing can match this hotel on the outskirts of Beijing. Nothing.