I don’t have a lot of time to post but want to at least provide a space to discuss North Korea’s apparent successful application to the nuclear club. China is in a real bind:
A North Korean nuclear test has long been a nightmare scenario for China.
Beijing is one of the North’s few remaining allies, and a major supplier of energy and financial aid to the secretive regime in Pyongyang.
China wants stability on the Korean peninsula; the last thing it wanted was an international crisis right on its doorstep.
It has condemned the claimed test on Monday, saying it resolutely opposes North Korea’s actions, and that the test has damaged relations between the two countries.
That anger is also mixed with embarrassment, because Beijing repeatedly urged the North Koreans to abandon their plans for a test.
The fact that the North went ahead regardless appears to be an indication that there are limits to the influence that China’s leaders have in Pyongyang.
But the situation is more complex than that. China fears that if it uses what leverage it does have, by stopping aid to North Korea, the regime in Pyongyang might collapse.
That could send a flood of refugees over the border into China – something that Beijing wants to avoid at all costs.
So China is reluctant to use the powers it has, worrying about the possible consequences of pulling the plug on Pyongyang.
But a nuclear North Korea carries with it the potential of a regional nuclear arms race – and how would China regard, say, a nuclear Japan? Might a flood of North Korean refugees be preferable?
1
By Ivan
China and North Korea are as close as lips and teeth? You mean like THIS?
http://www.victoryseeds.com/candystore/wax_lips.html
“Play now, chew later!”
October 11, 2006 @ 5:00 pm | Comment
2
By Don
As much as GWB and Co. iritate me, I think they are handling this NK nuke thing pretty well. Kim was going to build nukes no matter what. It seems to me that the US should pull back a little and let the Asian nations take a lead roll in hadling this problem. If you think about costs, Japan, South Korea and China have a wole lot more to lose than the US. The good news is that China has a whole lot to lose if NK goes nuclear. Right now, it pretty much has a monopoly on nuclear powerin Asia. The only other nuclear powers with interests in the Region were a feable russia and a manageable US (you know, the place China sells all it’s manufacturing products to.
Lnog story short, NK is an Asian problem with an Asian solution. The fate of this confict is in their hands.
October 11, 2006 @ 5:07 pm | Comment
3
By Inst
Q: What do you guys think about the artillery the North Koreans have pointed at Seoul? Seoul is apparently only 20 miles from the DMZ; a range achievable by many quasi-modern artillery pieces. The North Koreans also rumored to have 500 very-long range superartillery pieces, capable of hitting (or not hitting) targets 60km distant. An extreme estimate is about 10K shells in a one minute salvo, though I’m told the number’s been revised downwards. Even better, the North Koreans have a biochemical weapons program going on.
I don’t know whether my information is accurate, or whether this is just debris spun by the Roh administration to help support its Sunshine policy. However, if the information is accurate, shouldn’t the North Koreans be busy threatening Seoul with bio-attack? If the information is NOT accurate, however, then the North Korean artillery can be cleared out by ROK / USAF airstrikes, and an attack is viable.
October 11, 2006 @ 5:42 pm | Comment
4
By Michael Turton
I still can’t bring myself to believe that this was an actual nuke, and not just a zillion tons of conventional explosive. I’d like to see the data from isotope analysis, etc.
Quite convenient … Japan gets a hardline premier — and doubts about his position are silenced. China takes it on the chin, and the Rethugs in the US get an instant distractor from their other foreign policy failures and the Foley scandal + coverup. Nothing like Kim Jung-il when you really need him….
Michael
October 11, 2006 @ 8:26 pm | Comment
5
By OtherLisa
One of the articles I read talked about the demonstrations in South Korea – a lot of anger there towards the North and a sense of betrayal since they had supported the “soft” stance. Seoul is very vulnerable to a North Korean attack.
I’ve heard the bomb might have been a conventional weapon or only a “partial success.”
Ivan…eyeww!!!
October 12, 2006 @ 1:26 am | Comment
6
By Raj
China has to take positive action, because doing nothing (having been defied twice in a row by NK) will make it look weak and impotent. If it sits on its hands, it will become a laughing-stock.
October 12, 2006 @ 4:44 am | Comment
7
By sepa
In response to Don’s comment, the losers are the ones who already own the bombs, i.e. China and the United States. Kim is a nationlist. So the South Koreans know that that weapon will never be used against them. Though there is risk that the North can hold the South as hostage should US go ahead perform a surgical operation on the North, the potential gain is that the future unified Korea will automatically earn a spot in the prestigious nuclear club. Japan is a not a loser either. Their goal to be come a “normal” country will soon be realized. And their chances to gain
permenent security council seat increase dramatically. Then who is the biggest loser? Without a doubt, it’s USA. Aside from the emerging worries that Kim might transfer bombs to terrorists, when smokes clear, America will find itself out of Asia forever. I don;t have time to elaborate, but believe or not, China can tolerate a nuclare-armed Japan more than the Ameirca can.
October 12, 2006 @ 7:51 am | Comment
8
By OtherLisa
hmmm, I’d say that China has more to lose than the US, if only because of proximity to the problem.
I’d also make a separation between genuine US interests and Bush’s interests. They are not the same, and thankfully we only have to survive two more years of the latter.
October 12, 2006 @ 8:26 am | Comment
9
By Chip
I’ve actually always been curious about why the US or perhaps England didn’t send in assassins a long time ago to wipe him out (both those countries have a very very good elite military class, though I think England’s is better,eh 007?). But then somebody told me, if you knocked out Kim, another freak would simply take his place.
October 12, 2006 @ 8:49 am | Comment
10
By Ivan
Chip, your friend was right, another freak would just take his place, because almost the whole f—ing country has been brainwashed into a state of collective pyschosis.
The Russians know this, and that’s exactly why THEY (who would have loved to) haven’t taken any of their many opportunities to whack Kim. They’d do it if they didn’t understand that Kim is just the Prima Psycho Inter Pares.
October 12, 2006 @ 8:57 am | Comment
11
By sepa
I see your point regarding proximity, Lisa. That’s why people here in the US are more concerned about NoKo’s projection capability than say Japan. But what about bombs land in the wrongs hands? Remember in Bush’s statement, he sort of redefine
the red line by stating that US will hold NoKo fully accountable should a transfer occur. For the Chinese, you have to keep in mind that they are an advocate of a multipolar world. Perhaps by sharing power with a nuclear-armed Japan and Korea in East Asia, China would probably think this is an accpetable trade-off. If this will happen, Japan will be out of control of the United States. And America’s influence in Asia would drastically decrease.
October 12, 2006 @ 9:02 am | Comment
12
By sepa
talking about knocking Kim out, I actually think it would be a much less messy situation. North Korea is primarily a military challenge. With the help of South Korea and surrounding countries, post-kim period can be less painful than the Iraqi case. I would say communism brainwash are much easier to deal with than religious extremism. Too bad, Americans are currently tied up in the middle east.
October 12, 2006 @ 9:20 am | Comment
13
By otherlisa
Sepa, I know proliferation is a huge concern. However, I’ve also heard that any nuclear device can be traced back to its point of origin because of the radiation signature (?) – I don’t actually understand why, but I just read this again last night.
So if a device that could be traced back to NK were ever used against the US – or any major military power – well, that’s the end of that regime.
Kim is not a nut in that way, I don’t think. He’s too addicted to the finer things to be suicidal. But I do see this almost as some bizarre ploy for attention…I mean, the statements coming out of NK are these weird variations of, “now you’d BETTER talk to us, or we’ll launch another missile!”
October 12, 2006 @ 9:31 am | Comment
14
By Ivan
North Korea’s ploy for attention as covered by The Onion:
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/43895
October 12, 2006 @ 9:44 am | Comment
15
By OtherLisa
HEE!
That very un-PC song from the South Park movie keeps going through my head…
October 12, 2006 @ 9:54 am | Comment
16
By ray
1. NK conventional forces have been downgraded due to US going after funding NK gets from counterfeit money, cigarrettes, and illegal weapon sales. Fuel for training is another issue.
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/korea/articles/20061010.aspx
2. What replaces Kim could be much worse, or country could fall apart and neither China or South Korea want this. This is why South Korea has been propping up the NK, as well as China. China does not want US proxy on their border, huge refugee issue, and possible civil war next door. South Korea does not want cost of rebuilding NK, they got scared by cost of German unification.
3. China is the big loser, especially if Japan goes Nuclear (within 6 month is estimated time if they decide). Why not Taiwan next? How about South Korea? Before China was only Nuclear power in the area. Now it’s easier to trigger a war. What if NK fires a missile, even as a test. May be it has a Nuke, may be it does not, flying toward Japan.
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htproc/articles/20061011.aspx
4. China seems not sure what to do with NK, hence their decision to do nothing and lose face. Roh administration that has been on a sunshine policy also has egg on it’s face, since it appears their policies got nothing.
Interesting and scary mess. Especially since the US may do an inspection of all ships leaving NK. NK’s reaction could be interesting… US reaction to that would even be more interesting…
October 12, 2006 @ 11:30 am | Comment
17
By OtherLisa
Just heard another discussion of this on TALK OF THE NATION – sure, the US could try and inspect ships. But plutonium could easily be shipped via cargo plane. Which again puts the ball back in China’s court.
I’ve also heard a lot of talk about China’s not wanting a US ally on its border, but I have to wonder how long that preference will hold sway over the chaos and disruption of a neighbor like North Korea.
I think…eventually…if we can get through this scary, unsettled period…that big countries like China and the US are going to realize that they have more interests in common than they do conflicts. Economic interdependence and global issues (e.g., the environment) in time I hope will trump rivalries and competition.
We’d better hope so, anyway.
October 12, 2006 @ 1:33 pm | Comment
18
By Ivan
Lisa, here’s the link to that song you mentioned, the one by Kim Jong Il, singing “I’m so ronery”
http://youtube.com/watch?v=wO28NQc9tW4
…it all seems so appropriate now…
October 12, 2006 @ 1:47 pm | Comment
19
By Raj
Lisa,
“However, I’ve also heard that any nuclear device can be traced back to its point of origin because of the radiation signature”
I think that’s only if the authorities know everything there is to know about that facility. So unless the US has information about all of North Korea’s nuclear facilities, that wouldn’t work.
Besides, I think Kim WOULD be that mad if he thought he could spare it and smuggle it out successfully.
October 12, 2006 @ 8:53 pm | Comment
20
By VizzyBoy
My view is in contrast to majority of you folks.
Right now US is the biggest threat to China(as it percieves) and China is ofcourse a challenger to American clout in Asia.
My hunch is that since NK is a Chinese stooge(China is source of NK’s bread and butter), China would have prompted NK to go nuclear. We have’nt yet put India into the equation. (background read: Google India US nuclear deal to learn more). This deal gives India all the fuel and tech it needs for civilian uses and frees up Indian Uranium resources for military use. India’s reason for exploding bomb was China Threat. Now this deal is in US congress pending vote. China is not comfortable with this deal as it does not want a nuke power in its western flank.
Scenario: NK explodes bomb.
Result: Non-proliferation brouhaha and coz of this the India deal gets scuttled in US congress. China just killed two birds with one stone, reinstate its prominence as NK problem as Asian and try to get US out of it and scuttle the India nuke deal because of non-proliferation concerns.
CCP guys are real smart asses.
An interesting read on NK proliferation to Pakistan.
http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?fodname=20061023&fname=North+Korea+%28F%29&sid=2
October 16, 2006 @ 5:17 pm | Comment
21
By VizzyBoy
My view is in contrast to majority of you folks.
Right now US is the biggest threat to China(as it percieves) and China is ofcourse a challenger to American clout in Asia.
My hunch is that since NK is a Chinese stooge(China is source of NK’s bread and butter), China would have prompted NK to go nuclear. We have’nt yet put India into the equation. (background read: Google India US nuclear deal to learn more). This deal gives India all the fuel and tech it needs for civilian uses and frees up Indian Uranium resources for military use. India’s reason for exploding bomb was China Threat. Now this deal is in US congress pending vote. China is not comfortable with this deal as it does not want a nuke power in its western flank.
Scenario: NK explodes bomb.
Result: Non-proliferation brouhaha and coz of this the India deal gets scuttled in US congress. China just killed two birds with one stone, reinstate its prominence as NK problem as Asian and try to get US out of it and scuttle the India nuke deal because of non-proliferation concerns.
CCP guys are real smart asses.
An interesting read on NK proliferation to Pakistan.
http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?fodname=20061023&fname=North+Korea+%28F%29&sid=2
October 16, 2006 @ 5:20 pm | Comment