(With respect to Richard I am not commenting on the Democrat race today)
Looking at key counties that voted big for Bush in 2000, Fred Thompson was taking a lot of votes that potentially could have gone to Huckabee. For example:
Greenville
Huckabee – 16,775
McCain – 15,297
Thompson – 12,438
Spartanburg
Huckabee – 10,297
McCain – 8,232
Thompson – 5,893
The open nature of the Republican race helped McCain in Iowa, as Huckabee’s victory over Romney stopped the latter getting momentum. As a result McCain took New Hampshire. Now Thompson may have helped McCain (not necessarily handing him the victory) again in South Carolina.
And South Carolina does matter. It has selected the Republican nominee for a long time, and it’s where McCain foundered in 2000. It will be a great confidence boost to him and his crew to win this time. With Florida coming up in a bit over a week McCain will get a boost and Giuliani, ahead for months, will be kicking himself about that. McCain has always been his biggest rival.
I think Huckabee and Thompson have lost their chance. The former should have won tonight and the former needed to come second/near to the front-runner (16% is not enough). Even if they get support elsewhere it will probably be too little too late. That leaves Giuliani and Romney to compete against McCain – at this time I’m not sure they can.
Those who wrote him off as early as late last year must feel really embarrassed now.
Raj
1
By 王 甜
Giuliani is polling far below Ron Paul, how can anyone say that Giuliani can compete?
January 20, 2008 @ 10:47 pm | Comment
2
By shulan
Short question to all no-american readers:
How big a news is the presidential race in other countries? In Germany it is quite big. At least if you take Spiegel-Online as a barometer, which is one of the leading online-sources in Germany, and is following the race rather closely. What about other European nations, and what about China?
Any insights?
January 20, 2008 @ 11:35 pm | Comment
3
By Raj
Giuliani is polling far below Ron Paul, how can anyone say that Giuliani can compete?
He has bet everything on Florida. If he wins there he goes into Super Tuesday with a chance to win key states – if he fails he’s out. As commentators have said, either the cleverest election strategy ever or the stupidest.
How big a news is the presidential race in other countries?
It’s getting reasonable coverage in the UK. I can’t say that it’s “big” news, but certainly medium news – high up on the world news agenda.
January 21, 2008 @ 3:00 am | Comment
4
By chris
where is the love for ron paul? he is the only cantidate who does not spew verbal poop. only dr. paul can save america. wake up people.
January 21, 2008 @ 10:36 am | Comment
5
By PB
Shulan,
Canadian media follows the political circus in our southern neighbour quite closely. This might be due to the fact that, well, a good chunk of our television channels are American.
Joking aside, major developments in the American primaries are easily front page stories up here. Canada is a concerned neighbour.
January 21, 2008 @ 11:30 am | Comment
6
By bocaj
Why would Chinese media cover any election? That would lead to discussion about the merits of a candidate and then onto the merits of selecting the leader of a country. Surely these are not topics the Party wants discussed on tv.
January 21, 2008 @ 1:28 pm | Comment
7
By rumour
“Canada is a concerned neighbour.”
Canada will soon be part of the North American Union together with Mexico. It’d taken Europe 50 years to form EU, I wonder how long it will take the NAU and the Amero to become a reality- another 20 years perhaps?
January 21, 2008 @ 8:05 pm | Comment
8
By Ellen
I think until candidates are actually chosen — right now they’re running for the nominations — it might not be big news elsewhere. Once candidates are chosen, other nations who have to interact with the president probably pay more attention. The reason the campaign is exciting to Americans right now is that the field is so historically diverse in ideology, ethnicity, religion and gender. Why would other nations, who’ve long had diversity in gender and ethnicity in their leaders bat an eye about that?
January 22, 2008 @ 1:51 am | Comment
9
By nanheyangrouchuan
Giuliani is banking on big states with lots of delegates where his border and muslim fear mongering and social liberalism are more widely accepted.
Oddly, even though Hillary won the popular vote in Nevada, Obama won more state dem representatives.
World markets down 5%, US opens tomorrow, interesting times.
January 22, 2008 @ 2:15 am | Comment
10
By Raj
Giuliani is banking on big states with lots of delegates where his border and muslim fear mongering and social liberalism are more widely accepted.
Worrying for him, then, that’s he’s now 12+ points behind McCain in New York according to two new polls.
January 22, 2008 @ 4:05 am | Comment
11
By RonPaul2008
Why would other nations, who’ve long had diversity in gender and ethnicity in their leaders bat an eye about that?
Very well said, Ellen! Cheers, the giant cry-baby adolescent state is finally maturing. We need the grown-ups to lead us into the new truly free world.
January 22, 2008 @ 7:18 am | Comment
12
By Si
i thought this exchange between hilary and obama plays out interestingly….
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,2244834,00.html
i was wondering if any americans here saw it and could say how it played in real life. when i read it obama comes off significantly better. how was it live?
January 22, 2008 @ 4:33 pm | Comment
13
By Lily
The problem isn’t that Fred Thompson took votes from Huckabee, it’s that Mike Huckabee didn’t reach out to enough voters on the issues that they thought to be important.
January 23, 2008 @ 5:08 am | Comment