Not that we didn’t know it already, but it’s good to have it confirmed by the US government.

Along with a recent spike in deadly violence in Iraq, a classified U.S. government report paints a bleak picture of Iraq’s immediate future.

As first reported by the New York Times, the 50-page report, called a National Intelligence Estimate, and prepared by the CIA’s in-house think tank, warns that the worst-case scenario over the next year is that Iraq could collapse into civil war.

Specifically, NBC News has learned that the report says there’s still a danger long-standing rivalries between Sunnis and Shiites could erupt into civil war and that continued attacks on oil pipelines and infrastructure seriously threaten any chance for economic improvement — which is absolutely critical to Iraq’s success.

“The challenge to provide security is a bigger challenge, it seems, each and every day,” says Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., chairman of the Senate Select Intelligence Committee.

The report also points out shortcomings in the Iraqi government itself — that the lack of experience in representative government is hampering efforts to create an Iraqi democracy and that any long-term political solution free of religious involvement will be difficult.

Ann Coulter says it’s going “magnificently,” and a day doesn’t go by without shrub insisting we’re winning, and spreading freedom and love. It’s as though he’s in a parallel universe. I hope someone tells him about his own government’s report. There is no good news out of iraq, nothing but tragedy and failure. Luckily Kerry is getting this and seizing on it as his chief talking point. Finally.

This is bush’s Achilles Heel, and if October is as awful as September, the voters are going to have to realize it.

Update: Good link on the same general subject — we’re screwed, and all Instapuppy and the warbloggers can post about is kerning.

Update 2: And yet more evidence of just how hopeless the entire mess is. It may not be as bad a war as WWII, but at least in that war we had a strategy.

The News Hour is showing the photos of 8 more US soldiers killed in Iraq this second. One day, not that long from now, we’ll look in amazement, bewilderment and shame at how we sent them to die for nothing except America’s alienation and embarrassment.