There is a somewhat disturbing article in the unlinkable Atlantic titled “Straits-Jacket,” and it could lead you to wonder whether war between China and Taiwan is all but written in the stars. (The article can’t be linked, but you can find a PDF of it here.)
Like most articles in the Atlantic, it’s dense and substantive and serious. That said, I’m not sure I buy the premise of its writer, Trevor Corson.
He starts by telling how China has benefitted in every way from America’s war on terror, especially in the sense that it’s diverted the neocons’ attention away from one of their pet obsessions — villifying China and actively seeking conflict with it. And he points out how at least in economic terms, relations between Taiwan and China are good — but there could be trouble in paradise.
To some, these developments suggest that time is on the side of a peaceful solution to the problem of Taiwan’s disputed status. But the reality may be quite the opposite. In fact, a number of analysts in both America and East Asia believe that military conflict between China and Taiwan is not only likely but imminent. Just how imminent depends partly on the Taiwanese legislative elections scheduled for December 11. If pro-independence parties gain a majority in the legislature, the stage will be set for a confrontation, producing a hellish prospect for U.S. foreign policy: on top of its ongoing military commitment in the Middle East, the United States may face a Chinese attack against Taiwan, a fragile democracy that America has promised to help protect.
On some level, of course, the idea that China would actually attack Taiwan—rather than merely threaten to do so, as it has for years—makes no sense. Attacking would invite a military response from the United States, and even without American intervention, it’s not clear that China’s military is up to the task of seizing the island. China would also risk losing the trade relationships that drive its economic growth.
Nevertheless, the threat of a Chinese attack has loomed over Taiwan since at least 1972, when China’s Premier Zhou Enlai, in negotiations with Richard Nixon, refused to renounce the use of force against the island.
He goes into the history of Taiwan-PRC relations, the military considerations and, of course, Chen Sui Bian’s posturing for independence. Still, I never feel he makes the case as to why analysts believe war is imminent.
The most interesting aspect is the reporter’s rather unorthodox but simple solution to the entire mess: let Taiwan fight it out.
The fact that Taiwan has matured into a prosperous democracy suggests a solution, albeit a radical one: let the island defend itself. In 1998 a Cato Institute analysis proposed that the United States withdraw its pledge to protect Taiwan; in exchange it would lift all restrictions on arms sales, allowing Taiwan to buy the weapons necessary to deter a Chinese attack. This course would require delicate diplomacy, because it would infuriate both Taiwan and China: Taiwan would lose its security guarantee, and China would face a new Taiwanese arms buildup.
Bereft of American protection, however, Taiwan would be forced to face the consequences of upsetting the status quo. The immediate result would be a dramatic reduction in China’s political fears, thus removing the incentive for a pre-emptive strike and buying both sides some time to move toward a peaceful solution. For Taiwan and its supporters in Washington, the idea may sound like a betrayal. But the best way to help Taiwan mature into a full-fledged democracy might simply be to ask its people to take responsibility for their actions.
Now that’s a radical thought.
1
By Conrad
Ah yes, abandon an ally because it is prosperous and democratic. I guess that means the US should leave Japan to its own devices as well. And Australia. And Singapore.
And, of course, musn’t have any unsavory allies that aren’t Democratic either. Of course, once the US is seen in the region as abandoning Taiwan, it won’t have to worry about allies, as they all rush to make their own accomodations with China in the face of the US retreat.
Hell let’s just cede all of Asia to China’s sphere on influence and be done with it.
November 11, 2004 @ 9:37 pm | Comment
2
By Filthy Stinking No.9
Have a look at some of the opinion pieces being run over at China Daily. You can’t make this stuff up:
“A cross-strait war seems probable if not imminent at this time. From across the effulgent flower-bedecked Tiananmen Sqare, unmistakable rumblings of distant drums and bugles are already faintly audible against a backdrop of red banners fluttering in Beijing’s morning breeze.”
The heading for the article is “A Central task for China on her 55th birthday.” That’s THIS year.
Practically speaking I agree with you Richard … no real reason for war. On the other hand, politically and emotionally? Yeah … I think there’s a chance of it, and getting higher each year.
November 11, 2004 @ 10:45 pm | Comment
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By Ellen
The us is selling hefty armaments to Taiwan, which does infuriate Beijing. I always assumed that these arms were being provided under the treaty just so Taiwan could defend itself if China decided to invade or otherwise militarily intervene in Taiwanese politics–and the U.S. wouldn’t have to. Colin Powell, on his last visit to Beijing related that the U.S. supported the “one China” policy, but to Beijing’s frustration, would not come out and say definitively that it would not defend Taiwan should China invade.
November 11, 2004 @ 10:59 pm | Comment
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By David
Eh … conflict has been ‘imminent’ for a good 50 years now. The article conveniently omits the part about how ‘troublemaker’ Chen Shui-bian has explicitly promised not to declare independence nor change the national title. It does bother me slightly that about 90% of ‘in-depth’ analyses of the China -Taiwan problem seem to go into some depth about China (and her position), some depth about the US (and her postion), and then has a completely superficial overview of what Taiwan wants (usually: troublemakers, trying to start a war).
As to the proposed solution: I fail to see how telling China that they can invade Taiwan tomorrow (for no good reason) with impunity would help things.
November 11, 2004 @ 11:03 pm | Comment
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By David
Ellen,
The current arms sales to Taiwan are quite restricted: it’s generally older technology which is authorised for sale, and only defensive weapons. I can’t think that selling offensive weapons will help the situation …
November 11, 2004 @ 11:06 pm | Comment
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By steve
Let everyone start selling weapons to everyone. Sounds like a good idea.
If China start selling weapons to countries in mid-east which want to destroy Iseral, US will know that he also should take responsibility for his action.
US should promote china unification. Period. It is in US interest. After China unification, China will no longer have any excuse to build up its army and all pressure will be on China side to show it is a responsible country.
November 12, 2004 @ 1:58 am | Comment
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By jacky
The perennial China-Taiwan-US triangular military conflict? Yawnnnnzzzzz!
November 12, 2004 @ 4:09 am | Comment
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By richard
David, you make some great points. The article really is top-heavy and fails to tell the whole story.
November 12, 2004 @ 7:06 am | Comment
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By jing
Why do I get the feeling that some people couldn’t recognize nuance and context if it hit them in the head with a brick.
November 12, 2004 @ 11:55 am | Comment
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By haikou homie
It’s in China’s best interest, not the U.S. Taiwan doesn’t pose a danger to the security of China. Leave them alone and let them live the way they want to. China has the responsibility for peace. Taiwan wants to rule their one way, so let them and you have peace.
That’ll get a bunch of remarks! So beat me, I like it!
November 12, 2004 @ 10:58 pm | Comment
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By tw
” The best way to help Taiwan mature into a full-fledged democracy is to BETRAY Taiwan,ABANDON YEARS OF PLEDGE AND FRIENDSHIP AND TRUST , let it defend itself by let it be eaten by China, after millions(if not tens of millions) of death on both side” ?
VERY VERY OXYMORONIC, after reading it I’m in a “deafening silence” .
“Democratic Communist Taiwan”?
Oh,come on, have some heart, please. The only reason the author can “impart” this kind of lighthearted irresponsible advice is either because he is not living in Taiwan OR(and) he doesn’t give a darn about Taiwan’s democracy and the well-being of Taiwanese people
November 14, 2004 @ 8:51 am | Comment
12
By tw
” The best way to help Taiwan mature into a full-fledged democracy is to BETRAY Taiwan,ABANDON YEARS OF PLEDGE AND FRIENDSHIP AND TRUST , let it defend itself by let it be eaten by China, after millions(if not tens of millions) of death on both side” ?
VERY VERY OXYMORONIC, after reading it I’m in a “deafening silence” .
“Democratic Communist Taiwan”?
Oh,come on, have some heart, please. The only reason the author can “impart” this kind of lighthearted irresponsible advice is either because he is not living in Taiwan OR(and) he doesn’t give a darn about Taiwan’s democracy and the well-being of Taiwanese people
November 14, 2004 @ 8:51 am | Comment
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By tw
The author is totally out of his mind, there is no other way about it.
November 14, 2004 @ 8:58 am | Comment
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By Ellen
What’s the difference between defensive and offensive weapons?!
November 14, 2004 @ 9:58 am | Comment
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By jacky
Former? one kills someone who asked for it.
Latter – one kills someone who didn’t!
November 14, 2004 @ 4:03 pm | Comment
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By jacky
I forgot to add, with those respective weapons.
Patriot anti-missiles batteries would be an excellent example of a defensive weapon, and a B-52 bomber or a cruise missile the latter.
November 14, 2004 @ 4:41 pm | Comment