I’m using a well-known phrase to address some poll results from Taiwan!
(UPDATE: Roland actually beat me to it, and I completely missed it! Many apologies, though I hope this is still an interesting article.)
New survey dismantles some old stereotypes
This is how Taiwanese society in general views the political map: Southerners support the pan-green camp and Taiwanese independence, while northerners support the pan-blue camp and unification with China; people of Chinese origin are for unification, while Hoklo Taiwanese are pro-independence; DPP and Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) supporters are for independence, while New Party supporters are the strongest supporters of unification, followed by People First Party (PFP) supporters; and KMT adherents can be found somewhere between the New Party and the DPP.
Although some of these stereotypes are correct, another recent survey by the same think tank surprisingly shows that most of them are wrong.
Defining a pro-Taiwanese independence stance as the belief that the Republic of China’s (ROC) sovereignty belongs to the 23 million people of Taiwan rather than China’s 1.4 billion people brings some surprising results.
76.1% – The sovereignty of the ROC lies with Taiwan’s population
15% – The sovereignty of the ROC lies with Taiwan and China’s population
85% – 20 to 30-year-olds favouring independence
80% – People with a university degree or higher education favouring independence
24.7% – People of Chinese origin favouring unification
70% – People of Chinese origin who believe that the sovereignty of the ROC lies with Taiwan’s population
27% – Aborigines favouring unification (the highest percentage of any ethnic group)
45.7% – Aboriginies who want an independent Taiwan (the lowest of any ethnic group)
Those are some interesting results. So why do so many people say Taiwan is heavily divided down ethnic lines, if they seem to generally agree over concepts like only Taiwan can decide its future and that unification is not the best way forward for Taiwan?
The figures for young people are especially important, as this may show that support for independence is increasing over time. Then again it could be that younger people are a little more idealistic. Personally I think it is a sign of the former, as Taiwan is continuing to diverge politically and socially from China. When confronted with such large differences as autocracy versus democracy, it is not surprising that generations growing up and starting families will fail to identify with China. At the very least it would mean China will need to offer an extremely generous package to convince these people to vote for “unification”, to the point where it may just be a face-saving exercise for Beijing and the status-quo (that Taiwan is for all realistic purposes independent) is formalised.
1
By JXie
A thought: why is the sovereignty integrity of Taiwan, within or without the ROC/PRC framework, so sacrosanct?
Why should those 20+% of Taiwanese accept the tyranny of the majority and have no say of what kind of country they want to live in? They can base on, as far as I am concerned the purest form of the self-determination principle, take up a beachhead in Taiwan and form their own country. If they decide to sign a defense pact with PRC, it’s nobody else’s business… Or is it?
March 20, 2007 @ 3:23 am | Comment
2
By fatbrick
If the central governement had today’s experience and expertise to deal with the situation across strait ten years ago, it would be much better now. However the damage has been done. I only hope they could control damage and turn things around. I guess it might need several decades.
March 20, 2007 @ 3:33 am | Comment
3
By CCT
Raj,
“So why do so many people say Taiwan is heavily divided down ethnic lines, if they seem to generally agree over concepts like only Taiwan can decide its future and that unification is not the best way forward for Taiwan?”
Why don’t you complete the sentence, Raj? They also agree over concepts like “independence is not the best way forward for Taiwan”. Numerous polls have proven precisely that.
It’s not difficult to understand that there’s two orthogonal axis to this discussion: 1) how should Taiwan proceed with cross-strait relations, 2) who has the “right” to decide Taiwan’s future.
You’re intentionally confusing these two axis, suggesting that one implies the other. Frankly, I’m surprised the numbers are even this low. I would’ve thought that 99% of Taiwanese believed that they’re the ones that have the right to decide Taiwan’s future.
Now, take off your blinders, and study the *other* axis of this discussion: how should Taiwan approach cross-strait affairs. Should it tend towards friendly and a possible distant compromise that preserves “one China”, or should it tend toward hostile rigidity that preserves the “dignity” of a “normalized Taiwanese nation”?
There are strong ethnic and regional components to opinions on that topic.
March 20, 2007 @ 4:15 am | Comment
4
By Ting Bu Dong
Most agree that “Independence is not the best way forward” because they don’t want to get the Poop bombed out of them. All the Taiwanese I know (quite a few) know that they are REALLY already an independent country … And I suspect do most Mainlanders where reality has never been a strong point. It’s one of the most ridiculous, stupid acts of denial in World history.
March 20, 2007 @ 4:59 am | Comment
5
By Raj
“They also agree over concepts like “independence is not the best way forward for Taiwan”. Numerous polls have proven precisely that.”
It depends what polls you read – some say a majority would support/want independence. Which is why I didn’t mention it.
“Now, take off your blinders, and study the *other* axis of this discussion”
Wow, you really need to calm down. I was just looking at an article in a newspaper.
“how should Taiwan approach cross-strait affairs. Should it tend towards friendly and a possible distant compromise that preserves “one China”, or should it tend toward hostile rigidity that preserves the “dignity” of a “normalized Taiwanese nation”?”
Well, maybe they would accept a compromise. But it’s just a bit difficult when Beijing REFUSES any position other than the one-China policy. The DPP have offered to give up the party’s commitment to independence – Beijing gave ZIP back in return.
Taiwan wants to talk – it’s China that insists that all talks be on its terms.
March 20, 2007 @ 5:13 am | Comment
6
By JXie
TBD, you have a fine point there. Think about this, virtually all countries on the earth recognize either PRC or ROC as an independent country, but never both. Sure, it was due to lately mostly the insistence of PRC, the charade keeps going on.
But from this single guy, what’s a far more ridiculous, stupid act of denial? The wedding vows. When you say, “in sickness and in health…” you really mean 50% of the time in the US (or 20+% in China or in Japan). But the charade is going on right around you all the time.
Maybe deep down we are all a bunch of pretentious beings, and keeping the charades going on makes us feel better?
March 20, 2007 @ 6:14 am | Comment
7
By Raj
“Sure, it was due to lately mostly the insistence of PRC, the charade keeps going on.”
The Emperor’s new clothes…….
March 20, 2007 @ 7:52 am | Comment
8
By Jing
The Taiwanese are cowards, give them a brush of the quirt and they will fall in line.
March 20, 2007 @ 9:12 am | Comment
9
By Michael Turton
Anyone have the original poll? The article is from Lin Cho-shui, who is anti-Chen and left the DPP last year. I’d prefer to either view the original poll, or else get a report from a presenter I trusted more.
Michael
March 20, 2007 @ 1:55 pm | Comment
10
By Keir
Wow. I was able to open the link from here in Beijing…
March 20, 2007 @ 4:35 pm | Comment
11
By jamie
“I’m using a well-known phrase to address some poll results from Taiwan because, funnily enough, ESWN’s Roland has missed out on these results.”
No he didn’t. They’re here:
http://www.zonaeuropa.com/200703.brief.htm
If you scroll down to 038. It’s the same survey we’re talking about, right?
March 21, 2007 @ 2:35 am | Comment
12
By Raj
Well spotted, Jamie! Thank you.
March 21, 2007 @ 10:06 am | Comment
13
By t_co
hm. interesting.
although on an economic level, taiwan and china are quite happy to be “reunified”. Just look at the pressure for CSB to open up his three links to the mainland.
another thing to consider would be that even as an SAR of China, I’m pretty sure Taiwan would have an extreme degree of autonomy (even more than HK). I think that would satisfy the people’s yearnings for self-determination; all Beijing really wants is to plunk down a few naval bases on the Taiwanese side and study all the SIGINT and ELINT installations the NSA has put down…
March 21, 2007 @ 6:34 pm | Comment
14
By Raj
“Just look at the pressure for CSB to open up his three links to the mainland.”
Indeed, though Beijing’s refusal to negotiate at the government level has made things difficult.
“another thing to consider would be that even as an SAR of China, I’m pretty sure Taiwan would have an extreme degree of autonomy (even more than HK)”
“Even more” than? It would need to be a lot more than. Zero political interference from Beijing would need to be guaranteed by it not reserving any powers over Taiwan.
“all Beijing really wants is to plunk down a few naval bases on the Taiwanese side and study all the SIGINT and ELINT installations the NSA has put down”
Even that would probably be impossible as it would make Taiwan’s defence relationship with the US impossible. Taiwan would want to keep its armed forces, and I doubt Beijing would make it that much easier for it to buy weapons so the US would still be the only realistic supplier.
March 21, 2007 @ 10:23 pm | Comment
15
By bingster
“Taipei Time” … it says all.
btw, China Daily, which is my bible, says Taiwan compatriots can’t wait to be united with motherland.
March 30, 2007 @ 2:06 am | Comment