In case anyone has no place to go as the holiday winds to a close….
Something to chew on:
The global economy will slow close to a halt this year as more than $2 trillion of bad assets in the United States help sink economies from Russia to Britain, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday.
Bank losses worldwide from toxic U.S. assets may reach $2.2 trillion, the IMF said in a report, more than the $1.4 trillion that the fund predicted in October. World growth will be 0.5 percent this year, the weakest postwar pace, the fund said in a separate report.
The reports signal that write-downs and losses at banks totaling $1.1 trillion so far are only half of what’s to come and that already contracting economies may worsen. Advanced and developing countries need to be “even more supportive” of demand than they already have been, with lower interest rates and fiscal stimulus, the lender said.
“Unless stronger financial strains and uncertainties are forcefully addressed, the pernicious feedback loop between real activity and financial markets will intensify, leading to even more toxic effects on global growth,” the IMF said.
I remember one commenter saying snarkishly, “The sky is falling!” Well, guess what?
1
By Serve the People
Here is an interesting article about China being shovel ready:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/23/business/worldbusiness/23yuan.html?_r=1&scp=10&sq=China&st=cse
We are indeed living in an exciting time. Imagine that in the next few years, the railway to Lhasa
will be extended first to Shigatze and then to India. All the trade you can generate in Chindia…
January 30, 2009 @ 7:02 am | Comment
2
By nanheyangrouchuan
China will have to train many more people than the number of experienced crews that exist now, which takes time.
January 30, 2009 @ 9:51 am | Comment
3
By Serve the People
Very true. A lot of job opportunities here.
January 30, 2009 @ 10:13 am | Comment
4
By nanheyangrouchuan
And alot of lag time with not much construction going on. Experienced people will need to be pulled off of the NSW project as new supervisors as well.
January 30, 2009 @ 2:42 pm | Comment
5
By fatbrick
Well, that should not be a burden but an opportunity
January 31, 2009 @ 12:37 am | Comment
6
By Not_a_Sinophile
In terms of “shovel ready” projects, if China continues to expand its version of an “interstate highway” system, it will be a great time to travel by car. I know that my wife and I are looking forward to driving from Yunnan province to Xinjian and the silk road. Eventually (if the situation in Myanmar ever improves, especially for Americans) we would like to drive India. The prospect of a railroad connection from Singapore to Kunming is also very exciting. It’s nice to have some hope in these trying times.
January 31, 2009 @ 1:04 am | Comment
7
By Bao
China Reports Seventh Case of Bird Flu This Year
http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-01-31-voa21.cfm?rss=asia
Chinese health officials say there is no evidence that the potential for an outbreak of bird flu is on the rise.
Everything is normal, do not worry.
February 1, 2009 @ 3:26 am | Comment
8
By Bao
And someone is having fun quoting himself…?!
February 1, 2009 @ 5:52 pm | Comment
9
By yourfriend
I don’t recall ever insulting richard. He’s a real person that puts his name and photo up so I (try) to type how I’d speak to a person in real life.
But you, Bao, are a douche.
February 1, 2009 @ 6:00 pm | Comment
10
By Bao
I’m just suspicious about your persona. With the kind of things you are saying here, I think I’m being reasonable.
Some inspiration for you…
February 1, 2009 @ 6:27 pm | Comment
11
By bum loving scum raider
I had to cycle that 3 times for a name I liked
February 1, 2009 @ 6:36 pm | Comment
12
By Bao
‘Scuse me Sir, what time is it?
It’s time for the New World Order!
“The time has come, off the back of the current crisis, to proclaim that the great neo-liberal experiment of the past 30 years has failed, that the emperor has no clothes,”
Maybe some of you will remember when I was speaking about “social experiments”…
Funny, how the news always catch on eventually.
Dirk Dirk dirky dirky…
February 1, 2009 @ 8:38 pm | Comment
13
By MichaelTurton
Richard, got database errors for the last few days when I tried to visit.
Rand Study on domestic trends in US, China and Iran and implications for the US Navy
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG729.pdf
February 1, 2009 @ 11:06 pm | Comment
14
By Bao
Thanks for sharing Michael, Happy to see I’m not the only paying attention to that.
One addendum, Pakistan is the major decoy now, not Iran. Notice the role of Pakistan in the future. It’s already starting.
February 2, 2009 @ 12:03 am | Comment
15
By Bao
And the one thing I’m noting of course in the report is: I’m not crazy, this is confirming a lot of things I was envisioing as well for China.
I’m telling it again: Expansionism
An ugly word in 2009, but I don’t see any future for the Chinese nation unless they go this way. And of course, the world reaction to it.
Grimm. VERY, Grimm.
“By 2020, China will enter a “perfect storm” of economic, environmental,
and social problems largely of its own making. In the next
10–15 years, while trying to grow and transform its economy, China
will confront the intertwined problems of premature depletion of its
energy resources, faltering economic growth, inadequate provisions for
its aging population, and the need to remediate an extensively damaged
environment. China’s ability to modernize and expand its military at
the same time will be constrained by these domestic challenges.”
February 2, 2009 @ 12:12 am | Comment
16
By Bao
China is a dying patient. Surviving on very costly medicines. But everybody knows that their days are counted. There won’t be any magical China rising anymore, the threshold is already reached. It just won’t happen, for economical and ecological reasons.
China is doomed to failure. And I’m utterly convinced of that. Very sad, but true. I hate this thought, but this is what will happen, and don’t even think about India, they won’t even get a chance.
I’m not pro US or Pro whatever, it’s all about who’s coming first in the race. And China is the last runner.
February 2, 2009 @ 12:25 am | Comment
17
By snow
Nicholas Bequelin: China’s New Propaganda Machine Going Global
From Wall Street Journal Asia: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123326012456829891.html?mod=todays_asia_opinion
February 2, 2009 @ 3:20 am | Comment
18
By bum loving scum raider
I hate this thought
Oh yeah I’m sure you do, this is why you’ve been fantasizing about it for the last 10 years.
China’s not going to collapse and it won’t be allowed to be expansionist.
February 2, 2009 @ 5:23 am | Comment
19
By horus
LOL. I guess now that Bao has established what the future holds, we can all make plans to leave China, it’s always good to beat the exodus rush.
February 2, 2009 @ 2:44 pm | Comment
20
By Bao
“I guess now that Bao has established what the future holds…”
I think it’s better to take the things I say with a grain of salt… 😉
February 2, 2009 @ 3:13 pm | Comment
21
By Bao
But it’s always worth keeping an eye on trends…
Chinese military chief vows nuclear, conventional build-up
“China will accelerate the build-up of its nuclear and conventional arsenal to form a credible deterrent…”
“China will also develop “a nuclear and conventional missile force corresponding to the needs of winning a war” in conditions changed by modern information technology, it said.”
Gearing up for something? Winning a war against who? I don’t know many Nuclear states that China currently need to be afraid of… Except the US of course.
Notice the double language in the news, always the same pattern, one side is about dialog, understanding, and the other side is about building up defenses and flexing muscles.
February 2, 2009 @ 5:10 pm | Comment
22
By Richard
Notice the double language in the news, always the same pattern, one side is about dialog, understanding, and the other side is about building up defenses and flexing muscles.
Seriously Bao, that can be said for the US as well. Of course, unlike China, the US would never be so foolhardy as to actually start an unnecessary war.
Why should we be surprised to see China arming? Is it good, do I like it? Not particularly. But it’s doing what just about every aspiring power has done since the start of human history. I want to think they’re not stupid enough to start a war, but if they follow my country’s example, who knows?
February 2, 2009 @ 6:04 pm | Comment
23
By Bao
I agree, my point about the news was for both sides, not just for China.
February 2, 2009 @ 7:18 pm | Comment
24
By HongXing
Why should we be surprised to see China arming? Is it good, do I like it? Not particularly. But it’s doing what just about every aspiring power has done since the start of human history.
Nonsense! Why does China need to have such a high military budget? Why does China need all these advanced fighter jets, cruisers, missiles? What reason?
US and UK and France have same or higher military spending? How can you compare China to other peace-loving democracies? We can have high military budget because we maintain the world in peace! But why does China need high military budget? I can only conclude that it needs it to threaten its freedom loving and democratic neighbors like Taiwan and India and Russia and South Korea.
China must be stopped, must be stopped.
February 3, 2009 @ 1:33 am | Comment
25
By Bao
Anyways, all our nations are way past the threshold of the deterrence theory. They can increase it to ridiculous numbers, US, China, UK, etc..
There’s plenty enough nuclear power right now to crap the world beyond any hope of recovery for thousands of years, in just a couple of hours (minutes?).
This is all face value bullshit.
February 3, 2009 @ 1:54 am | Comment
26
By Bao
News are catching on again…
The danger of an attractive America
I’m thinking about starting a 1-900-BAO-WAS-RIGHT line. I’d have preferential prices for people like Ferin (confidentiality assured, don’t worry).
But before my ego reaches astronomical size, it might just be a sign that in our era, information is spreading very fast.
2009 Jack in the box Bao’s keyword: Noosphere
Dirk, Dirk Dirky Dirky!
February 3, 2009 @ 2:23 am | Comment
27
By bum loving scum raider
Except you’ve been wrong about everything, and that news article is written by a fanatical Obamite. No one knows what Obama is really going to do, the Europeans were just glad to see Bush go.
February 3, 2009 @ 6:01 am | Comment
28
By yourfriend
used the wrong name up there
February 3, 2009 @ 6:39 am | Comment
29
By Bao
Hong Kong suggests that China could be hiding bird flu outbreak
Looks like I’m wrong again…
An outbreak would be catastrophic for China right now, considering the economic climate. Which of course could motivate the government to repeat the only scenario they know when dealing with a crisis:
Hush-hush -> Irresponsible / chaotic / immoral / repressive actions -> BIG FAT UGLY SCANDAL EXPOSED TO THE WORLD -> China loose face again.
The very near future will tell us… As usual. Meanwhile, take some precautions if you can.
February 4, 2009 @ 11:29 pm | Comment
30
By yourfriend
Unfortunately for you, Bao, bird flu isn’t the black plague.
February 5, 2009 @ 5:33 am | Comment
31
By Bao
Putting this in the same tread…
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/?id=390772
CHINA has built up stockpiles of domestically produced vaccine for human cases of bird flu to combat a possible epidemic, the nation’s food and drug regulator said yesterday.
The vaccine is designed to protect people aged 18-60 against the H5N1 virus.
February 12, 2009 @ 10:10 am | Comment
32
By Bao
Are we witnessing a silent crisis again ?
China Health Ministry Party chief replaced
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2009/200902/20090212/article_390782.htm
“The website didn’t give a reason for the change, only saying that the central government made the decision out of “work necessity and prudent study.””
Work necessity and prudent study… Hmmm….
This is my last comment about this.
February 12, 2009 @ 11:12 am | Comment
33
By Bao
Ok Ok, I know I promised that my previous comment was the last about the Avian Flu…
But this is just too weird…
Panasonic Corp. has ordered Japanese employees in some foreign countries to send their families home to Japan in preparation for a possible bird flu pandemic, a spokesman said Tuesday.
“We wanted to take action early before it gets difficult to book flight tickets,” he said.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jFX14blXVvoh4Q3z6XtKKFeydIug
Do they know something that we don’t?
Anybody heard recently about such measures in their company (real question)?
February 12, 2009 @ 11:20 pm | Comment